Aug. 5, 2016

By Tyler King

Canadian Baseball Network

Don’t act like you didn’t think it was coming.

With general manager Ross Atkins travelling - somewhat ominously I might add - to Houston yesterday morning, all of Jays nation thought the Aaron Sanchez-to-the-bullpen debacle was finally meeting its unfortunate end.

I mean, let’s be serious, Sanchez would have had to post something like a .900 win-percentage and the best ERA in the American League to have any shot at changing management’s mind in regards to his impending relegation - 

Hey, wait a minu -

With his 11-1 record (which is actually a .917 win-percentage) and 2.71 ERA (yes, the lowest in the AL), it appears that Sanchez may have forced management’s hand as they announced he will remain in the now six-man rotation “for the time being” and/or “likely for some time to come” (the GM’s words - not mine).

As happy as many fans were with Atkins’s total about-face, the best part of this news may be that they no longer have to listen to quips like these (for another week or two at least): 

“It’s what’s best for Sanchez’s (and the team’s) long-term future!”

“Think about how good the bullpen will be.”

“Francisco Liriano was good once!”

By now you’ve probably been force-fed the entire sugar-coating of this seemingly lop-sided debate, most likely against your will too. And despite all the rational arguments in favour of the move, you’ve probably also realized that it didn’t make much difference:

If you’re a fan of the Toronto Blue Jays, Sanchez to the bullpen made you mad as hell.

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As it turns out, you may have had a good reason to feel angry (just ask Russell Martin). Prior to start of play on Thursday, Sanchez’s 11 wins were tied for eighth in the AL (the leaders have 14). He’s also one of four pitchers to have started more than 10 games yet only have one loss.

As stated (and I’ll never tire of stating it) he is first in the AL in ERA, 10th in WHIP (1.13), and seventh in WAR among pitchers (3.6). 

Basically what those numbers should tell you is, short of a Chris Sale or David Price (the 2015 version), the Jays were not going to replace Sanchez’s production at the deadline. So they took a shot with Liriano instead.

Of course Liriano has had some good years, most notably from 2013-2015 while with the Pittsburgh Pirates. He went 35-25 in 86 starts over those three seasons, never posting an ERA above 3.38. 

But I probably don’t have to tell you, this year has been much different for the left-hander. He’s currently 6-11 with an ERA of 5.46.

So it begs the question, just what would Sanchez-to-the-pen have meant for the Jays exactly? Would Liriano’s numbers doom the team’s playoff hopes if he continued on his current pace? And how much better off are they now that Sanchez is allowed to pitch?

In order to examine Sanchez’s (now hypothetical) extraction from the rotation, let’s assume what would have likely been the worst case scenario for the Blue Jays - that they swapped Sanchez for Liriano, and Liriano’s numbers stayed as bad as they were this year in Pittsburgh.

(And yes, I’m blatantly ignoring the possibility of Liriano’s numbers somehow getting worse ... because that’s never happened to a pitcher coming to the AL East, right? Oh good god ...)

Prior to Thursday’s finale against the Houston Astros, the Jays record was 61-47, meaning they had 54 games left on their schedule. Assuming Sanchez were to start every fifth day, he’d make roughly 11 starts prior to the end of the season.

If he were to win at the same rate he’s won so far in 2016, he would go 6-0 down the stretch. (He has decisions in 57% of his starts this year and has won 92% of his decisions; therefore, all else being equal, he would have six decisions in his 11 remaining games. And 92% of six is 5.52, or roughly six wins. MATH.)

Now if you assume the same hypothetical scenario for Liriano, you’ll find that he would go 3-6 in his last 11 starts should his percentages remain the same. (He currently has decisions in 81% of his starts, winning just 35% of them). 

Essentially what this means is, the Jays could have been throwing away roughly three wins just by sub-ing out Sanchez.

Now obviously there’s no guarantee that’s how the season would have played out. For example, if the Jays lost all of Sanchez’s no-decisions, but won Lirano’s, there’d be very little difference between the two starters. Or Liriano could go 11-0 .. who really knows (Sanchez has received more than half a run higher in run support per game compared to Liriano).

Nevertheless, it’s reasonable to envision the Jays would have been sacrificing somewhere close to three wins by taking a Cy Young candidate out of their rotation. So maybe just consider this your fair warning should Atkins flip-flop on the issue once again ... and with him making statements like “for the time being,” chances are he might.

But in any event, how big of a difference would three wins have made anyway?

It’s possible that many people would view that number as trivial, or perhaps even find comfort in it - after all, what’s a mere three games out of 54?

Given that the Jays had a win-percentage of .565 when Atkins flew to Houston, if they were to keep that rate for their last 54 games they would end up with 92 wins. At the risk of patronizing you, it’s quite foreseeable that their percentage would drop without Sanchez in the rotation, and in that way giving away three games away could mean 92 wins versus 89 - a non-trivial difference. 

Or put it this way, in order to surpass 89 wins, the Baltimore Orioles would only have to play the rest of their season a game over .500.

But again, with Atkins’ recent revelation, there’s no reason to stress over that anymore (or at least, not yet). Still, even if it’s only in hidnsight one has to ask, would it really be that bad if management stuck to their original convictions and sent Sanchez to the pen?

I know it’s hard, but actually stop and think about how unbelievably STEADY their bullpen would become with Sanchez at the back-end of it - especially considering their seventh and eighth-inning struggles earlier in the season. 

Just imagining a bullpen roster of Joe Biagini, Joaquin Benoit, Jason Grilli, Aaron Sanchez, and Roberto Osuna should provide a jolt of serotonin to even the most chemically imbalanced fan’s brain (provided they aren’t from Boston or Baltimore).

And if you want to know how important a team’s bullpen is in the post-season, just ask the World Series winning Kansas City Royals, who inarguably possessed one of the best pens in the game. So when there’s a silver lining sometimes you might be better off to just take it and run.

Also, you’ve probably heard many people talking of the “Russell Martin effect” as it pertains to Liriano turning his season around - allowing him to shoulder the load left by an absent Sanchez.

Now I’ve been skeptical of this assertion from the outset, because there’s simply no way of reliably linking cause and effect between a catcher and a pitcher in this case. But the numbers are the numbers, and Liriano’s best seasons clearly came with Martin behind the plate.

He has a 2.92 ERA in 200.2 innings working with Martin, by far his lowest ERA with any consistent catcher (it’s more than a full run lower than his career ERA of 4.09).

Pretty typical, leave it to a Canadian to lend a helping hand.

And leave it to the Jays management to make a mess where there wasn’t one.

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Follow Tyler and #Section108 on Twitter: @TylerJoseph108