Sept. 27, 2016

By Tyler King

Canadian Baseball Network

Sorry, Blue Jays fans. But the time has finally come to accept and embrace your wild, Wild Card fate.

At six games back with only six games to play, one would have to be something far worse than delusional to still believe the Jays have a shot at overtaking the Boston Red Sox and winning the American League East.

Although if you grew up in the millennial-era of Toronto sports like I did, you’ve likely been deluding yourself for years (so what’s another couple days?)

But for everyone who’s approaching the final stretch of the MLB season with a shred of realism, you should still light those candles, say those prayers ...

And for godssake man, don’t you dare think about washing those lucky socks -

The dreaded one game playoff appears to be your destiny.

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Even with a Wild Card date appearing likely, that doesn’t mean there’s nothing to hope and wish for over the last six regular season games. 

Quite the contrary.

With the Jays clinging to a slim lead on the top Wild Card spot, there’s that crucial home field advantage at stake. 

Of course there’s also the possibility of them missing the postseason entirely, but let’s just ignore that for now (actually, let’s ignore that forever). 

The Jays currently have a one game lead on the Baltimore Orioles, who occupy the second Wild Card spot, and a three game lead over the Detroit Tigers and Seattle Mariners. It would therefore take something close to a monumental collapse for the Jays not to hold onto one of those spots ....

(Kind of like the collapse they had earlier this month when they went 1-6 to start September and gave up their division lead. Thank goodness they got that out of their system, right? RIGHT?!)

But here’s the thing. With this ridiculous, one game Wild Card crap-shoot, every advantage matters. And the only real advantage the Blue Jays now control is home field, which makes claiming that top spot all the more important.

For many teams, home field isn’t actually as big of a deal as some like to think. The average MLB winning percentage for home teams tends to hover around .540. Or, in other words, the home team wins about 54% of the time, meaning it's a marginal advantage at best (and totally illusory at worst).

With the Blue Jays, however, it’s a different story. 

Their home-away split is a little more ... um ... drastic.

Over the past two seasons the Jays have a home record of 98-61, which gives them a massive .616 winning percentage when at the hitter-friendly confines of the Rogers Centre.

To put that in perspective, if they won at that rate for an entire season they’d almost be the 2016 Chicago Cubs. (Emphasis on almost.)

On the road though, the Jays have managed a winning percentage of just .509 over the past two seasons. If they won at that rate they’d essentially be the playoff-less 2016 New York Yankees (womp womp).

This year alone the Jays are 45-33 at home, compared to 41-37 on the road. They’ve scored 45 more runs at Rogers Centre and their team average is 25 points higher at home (.262) than when they’re away (.237). 

And if that isn’t reason enough to cast a few pennies in the well and wish that the Jays top the Orioles in their upcoming three game set, home field becomes even more important should you grant the likely assumption that they’ll play either the Tigers or the Orioles in that Wild Card game.

The Jays have a losing record this year when they play at both Oriole Park at Camden Yards and Comerica Park. But they have a winning record when they play the Orioles and Tigers at home.

Yet, should the Jays falter and end up losing that top Wild Card spot, don’t immediately go swan-diving out of any 11-story windows. Blue Jays pitchers have the best road ERA in the MLB at 3.49. 

(Yes, they’re even better than the Cubs.)

It is also an interesting note that out of the eight Wild Card games that have been played since 2012, the road team has won six of them.

But with that said, betting on that being anything more than a coincidence is a gamble that no sane Jays fan should make.

Instead, think of home field like Vegas.

In the case of the Blue Jays, the "house" always wins.

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Follow Tyler and #Section108 on Twitter: @TylerJoseph108