June 14, 2016

By Tyler King

Canadian Baseball Network

Slowly but surely, the Toronto Blue Jays are starting to look like, well ... the Toronto Blue Jays. Or at least they’re starting to look like the team everyone expected them to be at the start of the season. 

Through their first 13 games in the month of June, the Jays’ offence has scored seven or more runs five times, something they managed to do only eight times over their previous 56 games in April and May.

Back in 2015 ... oh sweet, sweet 2015, when Jays hitters ended more opposing pitchers’ seasons than Tommy John ... it felt like they would blow teams out once a series. And perhaps it felt that way because they pretty much did. 

Before the calendar hit June, they had already scored seven runs or more 17 different times. 

Now I’ll admit, I may be engaging in a little selective recall as I reminisce about last season. After-all, 2015 didn’t really start out that great either. For every blowout in the Jays favour there also seemed to be a one-run game squandered. By mid-June, the fanbase still had to wait another month and a half - you know, for the trade deadline when they acquired all the good players in baseball - before they could even begin uttering words like “playoffs”. 

Remember, the Jays were eight games back of the division lead (50-51) prior to acquiring Troy Tulowitzki on July 28. They were also 34-30 at this point last season, a record they have now exceeded in 2016. 

With their 11-3 drubbing of the Philadelphia Phillies on Tuesday - a weekday afternoon interleague game that still saw a crowd of over 47,000 at the ‘dome - the Jays are now 36-31.

Meaning if the offence continues their recent upward trend, it’s very likely that, come August, the team could be in an even better spot than they were in 2015.

***

Despite some recent success, there’s no doubt the Jays’ offence hasn’t lived up to the bully-ish reputation they beat out of opponents a year ago. 

Through the first two months of 2016, they had a collective team average of just .238, compared to a .262 average in 2015. They had also scored 43 fewer runs over April and May than they did last season.

It certainly didn’t help that Josh Donaldson, Jose Bautista, Edwin Encarnacion, and Russell Martin were all hitting 18 points - or worse - below their career averages prior to June. 

Not to mention Tulowitzki has either been incapacitated or invisible for most of the year ...

But, whether it’s a simple case of statistical regression to the mean (you know, the “they’ve hit before so they’ll hit again” cliché fans have had to listen to for the past 60-odd days), some alternative coaching, or pure dumb luck, the Toronto Blue Jays are starting to look dangerous again.

Now don’t get me wrong, the Darwin Barney and Ezequiel Carrera stories are nice, and surely I’ve done a great injustice to Michael Saunders for not even mentioning his name, but the success of this team inarguably lies in the first five spots of the lineup. 

And, thankfully, the big sluggers have appeared to find their form in June.

Donaldson is having an MVP month once again, hitting .300 with seven extra-base hits, 13 RBIs, and an OPS of 1.088. Encarnacion is hitting .295 with six home runs and 16 RBIs. Martin has probably seen the most drastic improvement, hitting .276 over his last 10 games - and considering he was hitting .197 in the two months prior, he might as well be batting a thousand.

If Bautista can get it going then you might as well dial the clock back to 2015 (offensively-speaking only, the starting pitching can stay right where it is).

As a team the Jays bats have collectively hit .257 so far this month, which has helped lead to their 8-5 record. They have also hit 20 home runs, putting them on pace to hit 42 jacks by month’s end, which would be four more than they hit last June - although that’s not quite as impressive as the 49 they hit last August, the most they hit in a single month in 2015.

To put that in perspective, if they kept their current June home run rate up for a full 162 games, they’d hit 249 homers. It would be the most long balls hit in the majors in the past five years (the 2010 Blue Jays lead the league that year with 257).

Not only has the improved offence put the team on pace for a 17-win month, but they’re also averaging 5.46 runs per game. Now that’s obviously a difficult pace to keep, but it’s not entirely an unprecedented one.

Last season the Jays led the league by averaging 5.45 runs per game. No other team was even above 5.  

And to think, all this recent success with Tulowitzki out of the lineup ... (ah your snarky “we’re better off without him” comments are no good here!)

But now for the necessary disclaimer: 

As the old saying goes, 13 games in June does not a season make - or if it’s not a saying it should be. Last year alone, the Jays had two separate 11-game win streaks. Every team gets hot. Every team gets cold.

Yet at the same time, there’s no doubt that things are starting to feel “right” again with the Blue Jays.

And in that way, 13 games in June seems as a good a place to start as any.

***

Follow Tyler and #Section108 on Twitter: @TylerJoseph108