Dunedin Blue Jays 2016 Report
Part 1: Blue Jays from Away Awards
By Jay Blue
Blue Jays from Away
Following the report on the Lansing Lugnuts, we move south to Dunedin to move a level up in the system for the Advanced-A Dunedin Blue Jays.

The Dunedin Blue Jays had a very good year, making the playoffs in the Florida State League and finishing the year at 76-59. While they were beaten in a tight three-game series against the Tampa Yankees, the Blue Jays finished the year in a close second place in the league in runs scored at 4.66 per game while being 0.4 years older than the league average.  The pitching staff, on the other hand was third last in the league with 4.42 runs per game allowed, also coming in a 0.4 years of age above the league average.

Blue Jays from Away Player of the Game Champion
For those of you who followed the minor league reports here, you’ll know that I “awarded” Player of the Game (PotG) accolades on a game-by-game basis. It should comfort you to know that I’ve been keeping track of these daily awards and my rationale for the system is as follows.

The Player of the Game Awards were determined by a number of factors that included who I thought had the most impact on the game and who might have gone “above and beyond.” Most nights, there was just one Player of the Game. If there was, he earned one point. If I thought that either a) no one stood out enough to merit a single PotG, or b) two or more players were outstanding and deserved mention, I split the point up into two, three or four shares. If two players earned PotG mention, they each received 0.5 points and if three players earned mentions, they each received 0.33 points, etc. There were occasions that I felt that no one merited the award and therefore, I did not give out any points.

Ryan McBroom    13.33
Jonathan Davis    12.17
Richard Urena    9.83
Dickie Joe Thon    8.83
Chris Rowley, Emilio Guerrero    7.83
Anthony Alford    7.5
Jason Leblebijian    5.33
Conner Greene, Sean Reid-Foley    5
Derrick Loveless, Francisco Rios, Conor Fisk    4
Justin Shafer    3.83
Brad Allen    3.5
Gunnar Heidt    3.33
Jorge Flores    2.83
David Harris, Michael De La Cruz, Luis Santos    2.5
Christian Lopes    2.33
Danny Jansen    2.17
Jorge Saez    2
Mike Reeves    1.67
Jon Harris    1.5
L.B. Dantzler    1.33
Michael Bourn, Matt Dean, Max Pentecost    1
Alonzo Gonzalez    0.83
Jose Fernandez, Ryan Borucki, Taylor Cole, Josh Almonte, Chris Colabello, Tim Mayza    0.5

It was a close race for the Player of the Game Champion but Ryan “McBoom” McBroom wins it by a mighty bat length. McBroom edged out Jonathan “J.D.” Davis who had a fantastic season in his first healthy year in a long time. Richard Urena, had he not been promoted to New Hampshire, could easily have contended too.

Blue Jays from Away Player of the Year
As big of a season that Ryan McBroom had for the D-Jays, Jonathan Davis was able to do more things better to win our Player of the Year Award. McBroom may have led the club with 21 home runs and 83 RBI but Davis’s .376 OBP (more than 50 points higher than McBroom’s) while still posting a very strong .441 slugging percentage actually gave him an .818 OPS. In addition to the excellent on-base numbers, Davis stole 33 bases and hit his share of extra-base hits (21 doubles, eight triples and 14 home runs) over the course of 120 games.

Honourable mention: Ryan McBroom, Richard Urena

Blue Jays from Away Pitcher of the Year
The Pitcher of the Year award is very tough to award this year for the Dunedin Blue Jays. The best starters for the club were either promoted part-way through the season or had solid but not spectacular seasons. I try to not give this award to a reliever, primarily because they have their own award. This year, I decided to award the Pitcher of the Year to a pitcher who was so dominant in the Florida State League that it increased his trade value enough for the Blue Jays to send him away at the deadline. Colton Turner allowed two(!) runs in 31 2/3 innings over 26 games for a 0.57 ERA with a 0.88 WHIP while walking only nine batters and striking out a whopping 47 (13.4 strikeouts per nine innings). It’s a level of dominance not seen in a long time.

Honourable mention: Conor Fisk, Sean Reid-Foley, Tim Mayza

Blue Jays from Away Reliever of the Year
I’m certainly not going to give two awards to a pitcher who isn’t in the Blue Jays’ organization any more so this one will go to a reliever who was extremely dominant in the Florida State League, despite his struggles up a level in Double-A. Tim Mayza, 24, struck out 26.1% of batters and walked 7.5% in 48 1/3 innings, posting a 1.66 ERA and 1.05 WHIP.

Honourable mention: Dusty Isaacs, Matt Dermody, Carlos Ramirez, Alonzo Gonzalez

Blue Jays from Away Most Improved Player
The 2014 season was a year in which Kendall Graveman pitched at five levels, including the highest there is, making it all the way from Lansing to Toronto, stopping for a breather at each step along the way. In 2016, we saw Matt Dermody nearly duplicate that feat, going from a 4.21 ERA and 1.44 WHIP in Dunedin in 2015, to a combined 1.82 ERA and 1.16 WHIP at three minor league levels before getting the call to the majors in September.

New post on Blue Jays from Away

Part 2: Starting Pitchers
The Blue Jays had a little bit of trouble finding starters to get through the season, using no fewer than 14 players with at least three starts each. Several players who started for Dunedin have been or will be discussed with another team but there are still quite a few pitchers who started a significant amount for Dunedin.

Making the most starts for the Dunedin Blue Jays was Justin Shafer who logged 115 1/3 innings for the club in his Age-23 season. While his results were certainly better than they were in a 12-game stint in Dunedin last year, they were a significant step back from what he did with the Lugnuts in 2015. Shafer had a 5.23 ERA and 1.48 WHIP, with a very low 12.0% strikeout rate and 8.1% walk rate. Shafer could improve some of those numbers with better infield defense behind him as he has always been a ground-ball pitcher with a 1.67 ground-out-to-air-out ratio last year (and 1.71 over his career). I’d expect to see Shafer have a little more success in A-ball before he moves up to Double-A so look for him back in Dunedin in 2017.

Mexican righty Francisco Rios had a terrific run in A-ball at the age of 21. Rios not only pitched in the MLB Futures Game at the All-Star break, but he had (what appears to be) very sustainable success in Dunedin. After starting the season in Lansing where he dominated the Midwest League, throwing 30 innings with a 1.20 ERA, 0.97 WHIP, 35.8% strikeout rate and 6.7% walk rate, he moved up to Dunedin where he would pitch in 19 games (15 starts) with 90 2/3 innings and a 3.47 ERA, 1.20 WHIP, 17.4% strikeout rate and 5.6% walk rate. We’d like to see the strikeout rate improve and he could return to Dunedin to start the 2017 season before he’s tested further in Double-A.

It seems like it was just yesterday when Conner Greene was the premiere pitching prospect in the Jays organization but his stock took a bit of a hit with a development year in 2016. Still, Greene is younger than one might think (he’s still just 21) and he’s already got over 80 innings under his belt at the Double-A level. Returning to Dunedin in 2016, Greene started the season with 15 starts for the Blue Jays and had a 2.90 ERA, 1.44 WHIP with a 15.0% strikeout rate and 11.1% walk rate in 77 2/3 innings. When he moved up to Double-A, Greene improved his strikeout rate to 16.4% but his walk rate went up slightly to 11.3% and his WHIP dropped to 1.31 despite a rise in ERA to 4.19. When you look at his FIP at each level (4.36 in Dunedin and 4.48 in New Hampshire), you can see that improvements in some areas cancelled deficiencies in others out. Greene still has great stuff but his struggles in locating his pitches within the strike zone have made him a little erratic. If he can find a bit more command in 2017 (likely starting in Double-A), he could be in the majors in less than a year.

Making 14 starts among his 31 appearances for the Dunedin Blue Jays, Chris Rowley was actually the club’s leader in innings at 123 2/3 for the season. After missing two years of baseball while he served in the US Army, Rowley returned to log a ton of innings and put up some extremely solid numbers despite his absence. He had a 3.49 ERA, 1.28 WHIP, 16.7% strikeout rate and 5.8% walk rate. Rowley, in his Age-25 season, threw a lot of strikes and was particularly successful when coming out of the bullpen, sporting a 2.89 ERA and 1.03 WHIP with 35 strikeouts and five walks in 43 2/3 innings as a reliever. I can see Rowley moving up to Double-A in a relief role next year.

Conor Fisk is another pitcher who started in Lansing and made his way to Dunedin before the year was up. With Fisk, his numbers in Lansing weren’t even all that good, with a 4.91 ERA and 1.32 WHIP. But Fisk’s 26.8% strikeout rate and 8.3% walk rate were strong and he was promoted to Dunedin. After 11 appearances out of the Blue Jays’ bullpen, Fisk was moved to the rotation for most of the rest of the season where he actually fared better than he did in the ‘pen. In his 13 starts on the year (including one in Lansing), Fisk had a 2.87 ERA with a 0.91 WHIP and 62 strikeouts and 15 walks in 81 2/3 innings. As a reliever, he had a 4.73 ERA (over the course of the year) with a 1.51 WHIP and 17 walks and 45 strikeouts in 45 2/3 innings. I think that Fisk might get a chance to start in Double-A in 2017, mainly because there are going to be few starters’ spots up for grabs in Dunedin, particularly with a large group of players graduating from Lansing next year.

One of the pitchers the Blue Jays tried out along the way was 6-foot-3 righty Kyle Westwood. Released by the Astros at the end of spring training, he was signed by the Blue Jays and made 12 appearances (and nine starts) for Dunedin. With a 7.03 ERA and 1.63 WHIP over 56 1/3 innings, Westwood struck out only 12.3% and walked 5.5% before he was released in June.

Part 3: Relief Pitchers
In 2015, the bullpen was the strength of the Dunedin Blue Jays. In 2016, there were some pitchers who really picked up some momentum in their climb through the Jays’ system but for others, the fact that they could pitch through the whole season was reason enough for optimism.

We’ll start with one of those pitchers from whom staying on the field was a big plus, Adonys Cardona. While the 22-year-old Venezuelan’s numbers weren’t great, it was the first time he’s managed to get through a whole season since he blew out his elbow after only 10 appearances in 2014. His surgically repaired joint made it through the 2016 season and Cardona led the Blue Jays with 41 appearances although the staff was noticeably cautious with his arm, getting him just 37 2/3 innings. Cardona had a 5.02 ERA and 1.83 WHIP, walking 17.5% of batters and striking out just 14.7% but (and boy, is this one of the bigger “but”s I can write) he still has some filthy stuff that, when harnessed, is difficult to hit. I saw a high-90s fastball that sat between 95 and 97 mph with a nasty slider in spring training. There’s going to be a lot of interest in Cardona going forward but he could stick around in Dunedin for part of a year in order to try to find his control.

One pitcher who had a major turnaround in 2016 is lefty Alonzo Gonzalez. The 6-foot-5 24 year old spent most of the season in Dunedin (with a little taste of New Hampshire coming in towards the end of the season) and was extremely effective. While righties hit him to a tune of a .225/.333/.325 slash line, lefties were pretty defenseless, compiling a .150/.292/.200 slash line with just two extra-base hits in 97 plate appearances. In 58 innings with Dunedin, Gonzalez had a 2.48 ERA with a 1.31 WHIP, striking out 22.5% of batters but walking a rather high 13.5%. After his promotion, Gonzalez threw another 13 1/3 innings with a 3.38 ERA and 1.35 WHIP but saw his rate stats decline, to 18.3% for his strikeout rate and 18.3% for his walk rate. Gonzalez has seen a marked velocity increase since I saw him the first time in 2013 with Lansing and he’ll likely escape A-ball next year and start with the Double-A Fisher Cats.

Now 27, Brad Allen wasn’t as effective in Dunedin as he was last year. He did throw more innings and made nine starts for the Blue Jays but Allen struggled with his control, walking 12.0% of batters while striking out 19.1%. His 5.50 ERA, 5.09 FIP and 1.50 WHIP were all worse this year than last.

Carlos Ramirez, 25, in his third year as a pitcher, put together a very solid season, learning more about pitching to go with his cannon of an arm. Throwing in the 94-95 mph range, Ramirez struck out 24.6% of batters and walked 12.6%. Despite the walks, Ramirez left 85.7% of runners on base and gave up just 32 hits in 41 innings, giving him a very solid 1.29 WHIP to go with his 2.20 ERA and 3.42 FIP. Ramirez likely gets a chance to pitch in Double-A, a level he never got to as an outfielder.

The Blue Jays have a Jose Fernandez in their system but he’s a 6-foot-3 lefty from the Dominican Republic. After a strong season in Lansing last year, Fernandez spent the year in Dunedin, throwing 43 2/3 innings over 29 appearances with a 4.12 ERA, 1.44 WHIP, a 21.2% strikeout rate and a career-worst 17.6% walk rate. For Fernandez, a stint on the DL might have been at the root of the problems although his worst walk rates were in April (when he walked 13 in 12 2/3 innings) and July (12 walks in 13 1/3 innings). Was Fernandez compensating for an injury which then threw off his mechanics and control? Or is there some other problem? We’ll probably find out next year when the 23 year old returns to Dunedin.

Lefty Tim Mayza, 24, came to our attention in March when he struck out four batters in two innings of major league spring training. Mayza went to Dunedin, his highest level yet, and dominated Florida State League opponents, striking out 41 and walking 10 in 35 1/3 innings before a promotion to New Hampshire. Things turned around on him a bit in Double-A, as he walked 15 and struck out 13 in 15 1/3 innings, posting a 4.11 ERA and 2.02 ERA. Back in Dunedin, he threw 13 1/3 more innings, giving up just one earned run the rest of the way. Overall, he had a 26.1% strikeout rate, a 7.5% walk rate, 1.66 ERA and 1.05 WHIP in Dunedin. Mayza heads to the Arizona Fall League soon and then look for him back in Double-A to start 2017.

Traded to the Chicago White Sox for Dioner Navarro, Colton Turner had a coming-out party this year, starting in Lansing and pitching 12 scoreless innings, giving up eight hits and three walks and striking out 13 before an inevitable promotion to Dunedin. The 25-year-old lefty threw 31 2/3 innings with a stellar 0.57 ERA and 0.88 WHIP, striking out 47 and walking just nine before another promotion, this time to Double-A. In New Hampshire, things hit a snag when he gave up six runs on 12 hits and eight walks in 10 1/3 innings with 10 strikeouts before he was traded. Kept in Double-A with the White Sox’ organization, Turner finished the season with four scoreless innings, giving up three hits and three walks with six strikeouts.

Part 4: Hitters
Catchers
The Blue Jays are high on catcher Danny Jansen but, for the second consecutive season, Jansen lost a considerable portion of his year due to injury. This year, Jansen only played in 54 games for the Dunedin Blue Jays (and a three-game rehab stint for the GCL Blue Jays) and wasn’t able to get into a good rhythm at the plate. Jansen is still fairly tough to strike out, with a below average 18.4% strikeout rate and he walked in 10.1% of his plate appearances but hit only .218/.313/.271 on the year with seven doubles and a home run. The .053 ISO was his lowest since his debut in 2013 but the 21-year-old receiver does have good pop in batting practice. Behind the plate, Jansen threw out 26% of runners and allowed just two passed balls and committed two errors on the season. Jansen will get a chance to make up some lost time with an assignment to the Arizona Fall League but I’d be surprised to see him anywhere other than Dunedin to start next year.

In his age-25 season, Peterborough, Ontario native Mike Reeves put up some of the best numbers of his career in a backup role with the Dunedin Blue Jays. Reeves hit .244/.365/.348 with eight doubles and three home runs (a career high) in 199 plate appearances. This was in the season following a big home run in spring training off of Jays’ starter Marco Estrada (pictured above). Reeves’s ability to take a walk jumped over his 2015 numbers with Dunedin as he walked in 15.1% of plate appearances and his strikeout rate remained stable from last year’s Advanced-A stint at 23.6%. Reeves threw out 28% of base runners, let just one passed ball get away and made five errors. Reeves could be backing up in Double-A next year.

Another backup catcher, Michael De La Cruz, got into 41 games with the Dunedin Blue Jays in 2016, 27 of them behind the plate. De La Cruz hit .241/.309/.391 with six doubles, four triples and two home runs over 149 plate appearances. True to his history, De La Cruz doesn’t strike out much (14.8%) but his walk rate of 8.7%, while solid, was his career low. De La Cruz threw out 23% of potential base stealers and had some trouble corraling his pitchers with seven passed balls. “De La” (as he’s called by his teammates) can play some third base, but he will likely return to Dunedin, Lansing or even New Hampshire as a backup catcher next year.

Infielders
First baseman Ryan McBroom, 24 followed up his MVP season in Lansing last year with a very strong season in the Florida State League, hitting .274/.323/.468 with 26 doubles, a triple and a club-leading 21 home runs. McBroom struck out 21.8% of the time and, most concerningly, walked in only 6.6% of his plate appearances, down from 91.% with the Lugnuts last year. McBroom still had a very strong year, despite losing over 50 points in BABIP from his 2015 season and he increased his ISO to .194 from .167 in 2015. McBroom faltered in a brief, nine-game call up to Double-A New Hampshire in which he hit .138/.235/.241. Aside from that stretch, McBroom has done nothing but hit in his tenure with the Blue Jays and he’ll get a chance to go up against some of the top prospects in the game in the Arizona Fall League this October. Look for him to start the year in New Hampshire in 2017.

In 2015, Dickie Joe Thon came out of the game tearing things up in Lansing but cooled off when he got to Dunedin. This season, he put together a very solid season, posting a .258/.333/.400 slash line with a 116 wRC+ (“weighted Runs Created plus” which measures offensive production in relation to league average, meaning that Thon’s production was 16% better than average). Thon brought his strikeout rate down to 23.3% and raised his walk rate to a solid 8.2% and hit 20 doubles, two triples and 10 home runs over the course of the season. I can see Thon starting 2017 either with Dunedin or New Hampshire.

Richard Urena surprised people last year with the power that he unleashed on the Midwest League with 15 home runs but in 2016, he came back to earth a bit despite an outstanding showing with the Dunedin Blue Jays and New Hampshire Fisher Cats. In 97 games with Dunedin, Urena hit .305/.351/.447 with 18 doubles, seven triples and eight home runs but those numbers don’t really reflect the improvement that Urena saw throughout the year. In April, he had a .677 OPS and in May, he put together a .710 OPS. In June, he rocketed up to .795, hitting .308 with taking nine walks and in July, he hit an atounding .371/.407/.534 with four home runs, earning himself an early August call up to New Hampshire. In Manchester, he hit .266/.282/.395 with six doubles and five triples, but after a torrid start (hitting .343 in his first 17 games), he cooled off  in the final two weeks of the season. Urena did improve his walk rate with Dunedin, taking a walk in 5.8% of plate appearances and striking out in only 14.8% while striking out in 14.4% in New Hampshire but walking in only 3.0%. Still, there’s a lot to like about Urena’s season and he’s going to be a fearsome 21 year old in Double-A next season.

L.B. Dantzler spent the season on and off the disabled list and wasn’t able to do much with the bat. He hit .235/.296/.301 with 10 doubles and a home run in 196 plate appearances and retired after the season concluded.

Emilio Guerrero played exactly 43 games for each of the Dunedin Blue Jays and the New Hampshire Fisher Cats in 2016, in his Age-23 season. Guerrero came to bat 182 times for the D-Jays and hit .284/.343/.537 with 15 doubles, a triple and eight home runs. He added five home runs, eight doubles and two triples in New Hampshire (in 163 plate appearances) with a .282/.327/.463 slash line. Guerrero’s rate stats tailed off expectedly in New Hampshire, as he had an 8.2% walk rate in Dunedin and a 6.1% in New Hampshire while striking out 17.6% in Dunedin and 21.5% in New Hampshire. Look for Guerrero to stick in Double-A in 2017.

Since being drafted in 2014, Aaron Attaway has played mostly in a backup role around the infield. This season, he played 25 games in Lansing and another 26 in Dunedin, hitting a combined .206/.291/.290 with eight doubles, a triple and a home run in 178 plate appearances. Look for Attaway to play the same role with either team next year.

Andy Fermin spent most of the season on the DL, playing in just seven games and coming to the plate 25 times, hitting .200/.200/.280 with two doubles. Fermin is likely a minor league free agent after this season.

Outfielders
Jonathan Davis, our Player of the Year for the Dunedin Blue Jays, finally had his first full season since his draft year in 2013, and he showed what he could do. With a tremendous eye at the plate (13.5% walk rate) and without striking out too much (21.5% strikeout rate), Davis did a ton of damage, creating offense at a 42%-above-average rate. Davis hit .252/.376/.441 with 21 doubles, eight triples and 14 home runs but he didn’t just produce with the bat; he also stole 33 bases while getting caught just six times. Look for Davis to try his hand in Double-A next year after an outstanding season in 2016.

Anthony Alford ran into injury problems in the 2016 season, injuring his knee and then sustaining a concussion and it’s very likely that both affected his season’s numbers through the end of June. His overall line of .236/.344/.378 with 17 doubles, two triples and nine home runs, isn’t all that impressive over 401 plate appearances. Alford’s 13.2% walk rate is outstanding but his strikeout rate spiked to 29.2% this season. When you look at the fact that he hit .288/.403/.494 with seven of his nine home runs, 10 of his 17 doubles and both triples from July 9 to the end of the season, it’s a little more indicative of what Alford, who was in his Age-21 season, can do when he’s healthy. Alford will get more reps in the Arizona Fall League this year and will almost surely get to play in Double-A next year.

D.J. Davis had a rebound year in 2015 with the Lansing Lugnuts, but, moved up a level, wasn’t able to repeat his success, hitting just .197/.295/.263. While he walked in 11.3% of his plate appearances, he struck out in a whopping 31.1% and lost almost half of his power, hitting nine doubles, three triples and just one home run. Davis did improve his stolen base percentage, stealing successfully in 22 of his 28 attempts. Davis will need another comeback season in 2017, probably back with the D-Jays as a 22 year old.

David Harris followed up a huge season in the Australian Baseball League with a big suspension, losing much of his 2016 season in the process. He played in 30 games with the Dunedin Blue Jays hitting just .221/.268/.317 with five doubles, a triple and a home run in 112 plate appearances. Look for Harris to return to Dunedin to regain his timing by playing more regularly.

While Derrick Loveless played seven fewer games with the Dunedin Blue Jays than the New Hampshire Fisher Cats, he actually came to the plate more with Dunedin. Repeating the level, Loveless hit .266/.361/.416 with 11 doubles, three triples and three home runs in 204 plate appearances, walking in 13.2% of his plate appearances and striking out in 27.0%. Loveless, in his trip to New Hampshire, hit .207/.311/.414, hitting for more power and taking advantage of a ballpark that is more conducive to left-handed hitters. There he hit eight doubles, three triples and seven home runs, walking in 12.7% of plate appearances and striking out in 28.4%. Look for Loveless to return to either Dunedin or New Hampshire to start 2017, depending on where he’s needed more.

Michael Bourn played for Dunedin for about a week and a half, hitting .257/.366/.371 before the Jays cut him loose. He caught on with Arizona, playing 89 games with the big league club and hitting .261/.307/.362 and eventually moved on to Baltimore where he’s hit .310/.388/.476 in 23 games.

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