Casaletto: Five free agent pitchers that could help the Blue Jays

Free agent right-hander Jake Odorizzi is a pitcher that could help the Toronto Blue Jays’ starting rotation in 2020.

November 5, 2019

By Lucas Casaletto

Canadian Baseball Network

The Toronto Blue Jays’ offseason starts and ends with pitching.

The Blue Jays made a move on Monday, kicking off their offseason by acquiring right-hander Chase Anderson from the Milwaukee Brewers for prospect Chad Spanberger.

This trade isn’t going to set off fireworks across the fan base but there’s something to be said for Anderson, who, despite epitomizing “average major-league starting pitcher,” instantly becomes one of - if not the club’s best starter.

In Anderson’s defence, he has pitched relatively well for the Brewers, particularly in 2017, known as his breakout season. Though Anderson isn’t likely to replicate those numbers, he has been a reliable starting pitcher in a hitter-friendly environment - albeit one that doesn’t rack up a ton of strikeouts. The Brewers were said to be leaning towards declining Anderson’s $8.5-million team option but found a taker in the Blue Jays, who are likely to continue to pursue trades similar to this.

With that said, Mark Shapiro and Ross Atkins have hinted towards spending a little more money this winter, and the fact that the organization was willing to take on Anderson (who carries a $9.5-million team option next year, too) is a good indication the Blue Jays are far from a finished product.

Here’s a look at what Anderson’s arrival means for the Blue Jays’ staff in the short - and long term, as well as a list of five free agent pitchers that could help the club.

The locks:

At this stage of the Blue Jays rebuild, there aren’t any immediate locks; maybe other than the newly-acquired Anderson and top prospect Nate Pearson, who will make his major-league debut some time in 2020.

There are more questions than answers after that. Trent Thornton had a fine rookie season all things considered, leading qualified starters with 1.9 fWAR and K/9 (8.7). The spin rates are what stands out with Thornton, so there’s still a bit of upside here, but once Toronto fills out the rotation, the right-hander will likely end up near the bottom end of it. Still, it’s safe to pencil Thornton into the rotation, barring something unforeseen.

Right-hander T.J. Zeuch, who made his major league debut with the Blue Jays in 2019, will be in the mix for a rotation spot in 2020. Photo: Jay Blue

The battles:

TJ Zeuch and Anthony Kay are two young guys to watch heading into the spring. In their first cup of coffee, Zeuch and Kay, at times, looked the part. If Zeuch in particular can find a way to strike more batters out and keep up his elite groundball rate, the transition should be seamless. Kay has more upside and seems advanced enough to warrant serious consideration to open the year with the club.

Jacob Waguespack is another possibility but he fell back down to earth after a string of great performances this season. He’s better suited in the bullpen where his stuff could play up in a multi-inning role.

If I was a betting man, I would put money on Ryan Borucki - who earned praise from Ross Atkins recently - and Zeuch. After that, it’s possible the Blue Jays try and stretch out Yennsy Diaz, who was added to the 40-man roster, though he appears to be a better fit as a reliever.

The unknowns:

Matt Shoemaker was off to a nice start with his new club before a season-ending knee injury. He’s under control for one more year and is a reasonable bet to return, which slots him more into the “lock” category. As for the use of an opener, it’s possible the Blue Jays will keep someone like Wilmer Font in that role, but it’s far too early to predict such a scenario. Unless the year is lost early on, or injuries arise, the Blue Jays are more likely to deploy a conventional five-man rotation to begin the 2020 season.

Surprise picks:

Patrick Murphy is the first pitcher that comes to mind. He was widely considered to be on the fast track to the majors after a terrific start in double-A but was delayed due to injury. He was later forced to alter his mechanics after they were deemed illegal by the league.

When healthy, Murphy is one of the better pitching prospects in the system. If he truly has figured it all out, the 24-year-old could be in a good position to succeed come the spring, forcing the organization's hand sooner rather than later.

Thomas Hatch is another possibility. The 25-year-old was acquired from the Chicago Cubs for David Phelps at the trade deadline and was one of the system’s bright spots down the stretch. He struck out 34 batters in 35 ⅓ innings, accruing a 2.80 ERA in six starts with New Hampshire. There’s not much to be excited for in terms of upside but Hatch could make the jump out of the gate, if not later in 2020 as a reliever.

My wildcard pick is Joey Murray, who ended the year in double-A. He earned a spot in my year-end prospect rankings after dominating at several stops in the minors. Murray struck out 169 batters in 137 ⅓ innings across 25 starts. The Blue Jays are likely to take a conservative approach with Murray’s development so it’s more likely he starts the year in Triple A, but could easily earn a promotion should injuries arise.

================================================================

Atkins and Shapiro were uncommonly candid when asked if the Blue Jays would be active this offseason, all but confirming that the payroll would go up. The consensus, it seems, is that the team plans to be more aggressive compared to past years; an exciting development for fans that have long labelled the new regime as cheap.

With that said, it’s best to temper expectations. The free-agent class - pitchers, specifically - isn’t deep. The headliner is Gerrit Cole, whom the Blue Jays aren’t likely to entice at this stage. Other big names include Hyun-Jin Ryu, Madison Bumgarner, and Stephen Strasburg, who has since opted out of his contract with the Nationals. Dallas Keuchel, Cole Hamels, and Rich Hill are among the veterans seeking new deals, with fellow old timer CC Sabathia ready to ride off into the sunset following a Hall of Fame career.

Here are a few options and potential fits for the Blue Jays on the open market.

RHP - Jake Odorizzi

Age: 29

2019 salary: $9.5 million

After a pair of underwhelming seasons with Tampa Bay and Minnesota, Odorizzi’s second year with the Twins proved fruitful for the right-hander and his 100-win club. Odorizzi finished the campaign with a career-high 178 whiffs in 159 innings pitched; a fairly dramatic spike from 2018 (8.9 K/9) and 2017 (8.0). Among qualified starters with at least 150 innings pitched, Odorizzi finished 19th in baseball with 4.1 fWAR, with his 3.36 FIP earning him a spot among the American League’s top-10.

Buzz over his improved velocity followed Odorizzi all season, with his fastball averaging 93.3 mph compared to 91.9 the year prior. He credited the results to an offseason training routine.

“Going from 91 to 93 has caused a big difference in my results this year,” he told FanGraphs’ David Laurila. “Hitters have to respect the change in velocity, plus it plays well with the rest of my pitches.”

Odorizzi is expected to command a significant deal on the open market. The Blue Jays make sense, if they are willing to commit some dollars to a right-hander in his prime. Odorizzi has experience pitching in the AL East with his years spent in Tampa Bay, and on that note, is familiar with Montoyo.

Montoyo managed Odorizzi as a prospect with the Durham Bulls in 2014 and the pair later reunited with the Rays from 2015 to 2017. That could mean very little in terms of significance, but it’s worth mentioning.

Right-hander Zack Wheeler is another free agent starter that would make sense for the Blue Jays to pursue this off-season. Photo: USA Today Sports

RHP - Zack Wheeler

Age: 29

2019 salary: $5.9 million

After missing all of 2014 and 2015 recovering from Tommy John surgery and having his 2016 campaign cut short with a separate arm issue, the former first-round draft pick has shined as a mainstay in the New York Mets rotation. Back-to-back mid 4-win seasons and a steady K-rate has teams glowing over Wheeler’s availability this winter, and though the injury history is concerning, the right-hander should attract the Blue Jays attention.

Tommy John surgery hasn’t affected Wheeler’s velocity as his fastball averaged 97 mph in 2019; up from 96.5 mph in 2018, and 95.4 mph in 2017, respectively. He still relies on the pitch more than any other offering, flashing slightly above-average spin rates with the pitch and his curveball. His advanced statistics were also strong, as Wheeler finished with .298 xwOBA while limiting batters to an exit velocity of 86.2 mph.

If the Blue Jays are truly serious in spending a bit more this winter, he seems like a logical upgrade for the starting rotation. The velocity is still there, the strikeouts are high, and perhaps the best news is that Wheeler has proven he can stay healthy.

RHP - Rick Porcello

Age: 30

2019 salary: $21.1 million

I know what you’re thinking. Stay away from Porcello.

It’s true, the right hander defines inconsistency. Porcello was brilliant in 2016, taking home the American League Cy Young award.

He was awful the year after (minus-0.2 bWAR, 38 home runs allowed, and an ERA+ of 98) but, in typical Porcello fashion, rebounded in 2018, accruing 3.1 bWAR, upping the strikeouts to career-best 8.9 K/9 and cut into the home runs allowed. It was back to being bad this past season. So, could the Blue Jays - or any team, for that matter - bank on Porcello to turn it around in 2020? Perhaps, but who knows.

He is going to come cheaper than his $21.1 million salary, which could interest the front office. One-year contract? Unlikely, but if his market goes cold like we’ve seen in recent years, Toronto could pounce. Despite the diminished fastball velocity, Porcello’s spin rates are as strong as ever and if he eases on the fastball usage opting instead to rely on his curveball and sinker, the results could be better.

In his Cy Young-winning season, Porcello used his fastball 21 percent of the time. This past year it was his most used pitch. Porcello was hit hard in 2019 but his fastball, in particular, got crushed by opposing hitters (.309 slugging against in 2016 compared to .482 this year). His whiff percentage with the fastball has also gradually dropped in each year since 2016. So, what I am saying is, Porcello could be better if he chooses to use the offspeed stuff more.

Porcello, of course, is familiar with the AL East. He could either bet on himself and sign a prove it deal, or he’ll command a long-term contract from someone. Toronto and Porcello make some degree of sense, if only for one year.

Right-hander Kyle Gibson was hit hard in the second half of 2019, but he did post a 13-7 record overall for the Minnesota Twins. Photo: Mark J. Rebilas/ USA Today Sports

RHP - Kyle Gibson

Age: 32

2019 salary: $8.1 million

Gibson had a very ugly second-half to the 2019 season, putting a slight damper on his value heading into the winter. There’s some sneaky upside here, though.

For years, the right-hander has been a steady, if unspectacular arm in the Twins starting rotation. He’s maintained good velocity on his fastball and increased his strikeouts to 9.0 K/9, finishing the year with 2.6 fWAR. Despite the rocky end to the season, Gibson has good underlying numbers that seem to point to some bad luck. His .330 BABIP is high and he kept the ball on the ground more than in the air, which is a good sign. Gibson has also been incredibly durable throughout his career, averaging 30 starts and over 170 innings pitchers per-year dating back to 2014. For a team like Toronto looking to fill holes in its rotation, Gibson should generate some interest.

LHP - Alex Wood

Age: 28

2019 salary: $9.6 million

Wood was one of the National League’s most efficient starters from 2017 to 2018 which complied with an offseason trade from Los Angeles to Cincinnati. His first year with the Reds was mostly spent on the disabled list as he battled a lingering back issue for almost all of 2019.

When Wood is at his best, he’s generating ground balls and soft contact despite his low velocity. On top of being terrific in a few years with the Dodgers, Wood also flashed considerable upside in Atlanta. From 2013-14, the lefty pitched to a 2.86 ERA (125 ERA+) and 8.9 K/9. If the back issues are behind him, Wood appears to be one of the market’s prime bounce back candidates. His situation reminds me a lot of Shoemaker, who signed with the Blue Jays after coming off an injury-plagued 2018 season in Los Angeles. For his part, Shoemaker performed well with the Angels before being struck by a scary comebacker that resulted in a fractured skull.

If the Blue Jays come out of this offseason with someone like Wood and one, or two other acquisitions, it will be considered a good winter.

If the price is right, and Toronto is confident in his health, Wood is my early favorite free-agent target.

Statistics courtesy: FanGraphs, Statcast, Baseball Reference