January 31, 2020

By Lucas Casaletto

Canadian Baseball Network

Deep into the winter months, essentially every big free agent has found a home.

The big fishes - Gerrit Cole and Anthony Rendon - were first. Zack Wheeler and Madison Bumgarner, too. Mike Moustakas signed a lucrative deal with Cincinnati, followed by Josh Donaldson - the Twins’ shiny new toy at the hot corner. Even the Toronto Blue Jays got in on the action, opting to dip into their pockets and sign southpaw Hyun Jin Ryu to lead the starting rotation.

Outfielder Nicholas Castellanos, who appeared to be a logical fit for the Blue Jays, was the latest marquee name to sign, agreeing to a four-year deal with the revamped and improved Cincinnati Reds.

There’s only one player left that really stands out.

Yasiel Puig. Ever heard of him?

Love or hate the guy, Puig, who split time with Cincinnati and Cleveland last year, deserves another shot with a major-league team. All the tools are still there. He’s a good outfielder, can hold his own on the basepaths, advanced metrics paint a pretty picture, and did I mention how fun he is?

The Blue Jays, then, ought to be in the mix.

For the same reasons that apply to Castellanos, the 29-year-old Puig could slot into his usual position in right field and shift Randal Grichuk to center. I have long advocated for Teoscar Hernandez to transition to DH and a move such as this would allow for that. The Blue Jays don’t have any outfield prospects waiting in the wings, either, so signing someone like Puig would simply make the team better at a position of need.

Today, Castellanos is the more valuable player, but he also just signed a long-term contract - something I don’t think Puig will get on the open market - and wasn’t attached with draft pick compensation. A one-year contract could be in the cards with Puig, similar to what the Braves did with Marcell Ozuna, who compares to Puig as a baseball player.

As you can see here, Ozuna and Puig weren’t far apart in two categories: slugging percentage and wOBA. It should be noted that 2019 was an off-year for Puig (101 wRC+ and 1.2 fWAR) his lowest output since his injury-plagued 2016 season. Ozuna performed better almost entirely across the board (110 wRC+, 2.6 fWAR) which also surprisingly includes defensive metrics.

Despite his down year, Puig’s batted ball statistics remained strong. His recorded launch angle was the highest its ever been and his hard contact rate was almost identical to 2018; a year in which Puig finished with 123 wRC+ and a .349 wOBA. A rise in strikeouts appears to have contributed the most to Puig’s struggles last season, as he swung at pitches out of the zone in 34.2 percent of his plate appearances, the highest of his career, leading to a 22 percent K rate - up from 19.6 and 17.5 in 2018 and 2017.

Outside of their similar statistics, Ozuna aligns with Puig for the same reason we touched on earlier: his recently signed, one-year, $18-million contract with Atlanta. It’s unclear why Ozuna settled for that deal, whether or not teams shied away from his profile or the draft pick compensation attached to signing him remains to be seen, but for Puig, that should be in the same ballpark as to what he could expect to be offered in the coming weeks, if he hasn't already.

Entering the offseason, FanGraphs’ Kiley McDaniel had Puig as his 18th-best free agent available, predicting him to land a three-year deal. That probably isn’t going to happen now, though stranger things have materialized in past winters. What Puig could mean for the Blue Jays is simply this: a good bat and a fun time. His antics seem to have mellowed a bit, and you know what, the Blue Jays could use some fireworks this season. Now, that isn’t to say any Puig experiment is guaranteed to have positive results. He’s been a problematic figure in clubhouses in the past and has drawn the ire of several players around the league, but if he’s producing, that’s all the Blue Jays - or any team - should care about.

A prove-it deal for someone like Puig makes sense at this point. There isn’t a ton of upside left at this stage of his career, but a good season likely results in anywhere from 1.5 to 2.0 WAR with 20-30 home runs and some excitement added in. There’s also the Ryu connection (the two were teammates in Los Angeles for years) and seemed to get along really well.

As long as Puig is available, the Blue Jays should, at the very least, inquire on him. If it works out, the Blue Jays could trade him for assets, and if it doesn’t, that’s fine, too. Puig and Ryu in Canada, surrounded by the next wave of talent? Now that’s fun.

Statistics courtesy: FanGraphs, Statcast, Baseball Reference