July 10, 2023

By Bob Elliott

Canadian Baseball Network

The odds of two Canadian brothers going in the first round were over 1-in-25 billion in 2018.

That was according to Paul Bessire of PredictionMachine.com, an analytics-based website in Cincinnati when Bo Naylor was chosen by the Cleveland Guardians .

This year we attempted to contact Bessire, but were told he had sold the company. We tried two other betting sites to give us odds on three brothers being chosen in the first round.

No luck.

So despite finding a betting site at each corner where you can find over/under lines, spreads and odds it was impossible to compute.

Odds expert Bessire pointed out he did not include sandwich picks but had restricted the odds of two brothers going in the top 50 picks, the odds would be more like 1-in-10 billion.

Josh Naylor went 12th overall to the Miami Marlins in 2015 and Bo Naylor went 29th to the Cleveland in 2018 ... 1 in 25 billion, we repeat. That’s 25,000,000,000 -- nine zeros if you are calculating along at home -- like a Nolan Ryan complete-game shutout.

And then Sunday night Myles Naylor -- ranked in the 50s and the 60s by most experts went 39th ... a supplemental first round pick.

Brothers drafted in the first round

Three Drew brothers

J.D. Drew Phillies 1997 (second-round over-all)/Cardinals ’98 (5)

Tim Drew Indians ’97 (28)

Stephen Drew, Diamondbacks ’04 (15)

Three Naylor brothers

Josh Naylor Marlins 2015 (12)

Bo Naylor Guardians 2018 (29)

Myles Naylor, A’s 2023 (39)

Two Uptons

B.J. Upton Devil Rays ’02 (2)

Justin Upton, Diamondbacks ’05 (1)

Two Youngs

Dmitri Young, Cardinals ’91 (4)

Delmon Young, Devil Rays ’03 (1)

Two Lansfords, but not Carney Lansford

Phil Lansford, Indians ’78 (10)

Joe Lansford, Padres ’79 (14)

Two Weeks brothers

Rickie Weeks, Brewers ’03 (2)

Jemile Weeks, Athletics ’08 (12)

Two Weaver brothers

Jeff Weaver, Tigers ’98 (14)

Jered Weaver, Angels ’04 (12)

Two Benes brothers

Andy Benes, Padres ’88 (1)

Alan Benes, Cardinals ’93 (16)

Two Clark brothers

Isaiah Clark, Brewers ’84 (18)

Phil Clark, Tigers ’85 (18)

Two Zimmer brothers

Kyle Zimmer, Royals ’12 (5)

Brad Zimmer, Indians ’14 (21)

Two Davis brothers

Ben Davis Padres ’95 (2)

Glenn Davis, Dodgers ’97 (25)

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Third round, Blue Jays pick (89th) _ The Jays selected RHP Juaron Watts-Brown of Oklahoma State. Ranked 48th by Baseball America, 67th by MLB Pipeline.com

Scouting Reports

Baseball America

Born: 02/23/2002 in Visalia, CA

Ht.: 6’3” / Wt.: 190 / Bats: R / Throws: R

School: Oklahoma State Source: 4YR

Age At Draft: 21.4

BA Grade: 50/High

Tools:Fastball: 55. Slider: 60. Curveball: 50. Changeup: 50. Control: 45.

Watts-Brown was a standout, multi-sport athlete in high school who excelled at baseball, football and basketball. He began his college career at Long Beach State, but redshirted in 2021 to recover from an arm injury he sustained in football. When he returned to the mound in 2022, Watts-Brown was named a Freshman All-American and his draft stock exploded over the summer when he showed improved velocity and some of the best all-around pitching upside during the summer in the Cape Cod League. In his first and only season with Oklahoma State, the 6-foot-3, 190-pound righthander posted a 5.03 ERA over 15 starts and 82.1 innings and led the Big 12 with 124 strikeouts and a 33% strikeout rate. He’s a good mover on the mound with a clean, fast arm, a bit of length in the back of his arm path and a three-quarter slot. Watts-Brown averaged 92 mph and touched 95 with a fastball that had around 19 inches of induced vertical break. He used that pitch less than half the time however, thanks to a high-usage, mid-80s slider that flashes plus with hard, tight spin and looks like a real out pitch. He generated whiffs at a 53% rate with the slider, with 40% usage, and often shows better feel to land it for strikes than either his fastball, his low-80s 12-6 curveball or his mid-80s changeup. Watts-Brown has fringy control and needs to improve his fastball command to make the most of a solid four-pitch mix.

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MLB Pipeline

Watts-Brown originally committed to Texas Tech as a California high schooler, but the Red Raiders backed off him when he injured his shoulder playing quarterback as a senior and he wound up at Long Beach State. After redshirting while getting healthy in 2021, he made his college debut last spring, threw the school’s first nine-inning no-hitter and set a school record with 13.6 strikeouts per nine innings (the fifth-best rate in NCAA Division I). He starred in the Cape Cod League during the summer before transferring to Oklahoma State, where he led the Big 12 Conference in strikeouts (124) and strikeout rate (13.6) despite an up-and-down spring. Watts-Brown’s best weapon is a plus 83-86 slider that he commands better than his other offerings, showing the ability to get swings and misses in and out of the strike zone. His fastball parks at 90-93 mph and tops out at 96 with decent running action, but it’s fairly ordinary in terms of velocity and life and gets hit harder than any of his pitches. He also employs a solid low-80s curveball with bigger break than his slider and an average mid-80s changeup with some fade and tumble. More athletic than physical, Watts-Brown has a slender 6-foot-3 frame and some questions about how well he’ll handle a pro starter’s workload. He shows some feel for pitching and should be able to refine his control and command as he gets more innings. His biggest need is to add some power or movement to his fastball so he can keep it off barrels.

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Second Canuck drafted _ RHP Matt Duffy (Burlington, Ont.) of the Canisius College Griffins went to the Boston Red Sox in the fourth round (115th).

Recently Duffy committed to South Carolina and the SEC. Some scouts wondered if he was out of the draft after committing to the Gamecocks. Now, slot value for 115th spot is $580,200.

His father Phil Duffy pitched in 15 games for the 1964 rookie-class Wytheville A’s, in the Kansas City A’s system, going 3-0 with a 3.09 ERA striking out 34 and walking 20 in 32 innings.

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Jays fourth round pick _ RHP Landen Maroudis, Calvary Christian HS (FL) with the 121st overall. He was ranked 72nd by MLB Pipeline and 82nd by Baseball America.

Scouting report

MLB Pipeline

Calvary Christian High School in Florida has one of the deepest high school pitching staffs in the country with right-hander Liam Peterson, lefty Hunter Dietz and Maroudis. Also the club’s shortstop when he isn’t pitching, Maroudis entered the spring third on the depth chart, but many evaluators believed he had vaulted to the top of the list based on his performance and upside. Maroudis is a solid infield prospect, a good athlete who can swing the bat well, but his future at the next level lies on the mound. The 6-foot-3 right-hander has the chance to have an excellent three-pitch mix. His fastball had touched 96 mph early in the spring, though that velocity backed up a bit as he tired a bit thanks to his two-way duties. There’s good ride and spin to the fastball, something sure to speak to the analytics fans. His changeup is his best secondary offering, ahead of the spike slurve he throws that’s more of a frisbee-like slider than anything else, with some evaluators worrying a little bit about his breaking stuff due to how low his elbow is in his delivery. Committed to North Carolina State, Maroudis does a very good job of throwing strikes, and teams will certainly be interested in his fastball qualities as well as the upside that comes with his athleticism. Teams that think there could be another gear to reach once he stops hitting could be intrigued in the first few rounds.

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Baseball America

Born 12/16/2004 in Largo, FL

Ht.: 6’3” / Wt.: 195 / Bats: R / Throws: R

School: Calvary Christian HS, Clearwater, Fla.

Committed: North Carolina State

Age At Draft: 18.6

BA Grade: 50/Extreme

Tools: Fastball: 55. Curveball: 50. Changeup: 60. Control: 50.

Maroudis has a background as a two-way player, but his future looks brightest on the mound and he is a part of one of the deepest and most talented prep pitching staffs with Calvary Christian High in Clearwater, Fla. Maroudis has a 6-foot-3, 195-pound frame with plenty of strength in his lower half currently, but still more room to fill out and layer on good weight. Maroudis has a relatively simple operation with a three-quarter slot and some head whack and effort in his finish, with a spinoff to the first base side in his landing. His fastball has steadily climbed over the years, and now sits at 89-93 mph and touches 94. His changeup is advanced for his age, with more than 10 mph of separation off his fastball at 79-82 mph while maintaining his arm speed. It’s a potential plus pitch with impressive fade and sink to miss bats. His changeup is ahead of his breaking stuff, and Maroudis has thrown a get-me-over curveball, but showed more of a slider in the low 80s this spring. Maroudis has been a solid strike-thrower, though his fastball command can come and go, but his athleticism bodes well for his ability to make adjustments and repeat his delivery. That athleticism is also evident in his quick pickoff move as well. He is committed to North Carolina State.

Jays fifth round pick/third Canadian selected (157th) _ LHP Connor O’Halloran (Mississauga, Ont.) from University of Michigan. He was ranked 164th by MLB Pipeline and 162nd by Baseball America. Slot money is $385,000.

The son of Greg O’Halloran, who played briefly with the 1994 Marlins, Connor was a mainstay on Canada’s 18-and-under teams before heading to Michigan. He barely pitched as a freshman in 2021 before becoming the first hurler in school history to record multiple 100-strikeout seasons. The 2023 Big Ten Conference Pitcher of the Year, he’s one of the most polished left-handers in this year’s college class. O’Halloran succeeds more with control and deception than stuff. His lone above-average pitch is his low-80s slider, which features plenty of sweep along with some depth and works against both left-handers and right-handers. His fastball hovers around 89 mph and tops out at 93, though it plays up thanks to its flat approach angle and carry up in the zone. His low-80s changeup is a decent third offering with some fade. O’Halloran has little margin for error but makes few mistakes. He has an easy, athletic delivery with a low arm slot that creates deception without compromising his ability to throw strikes. His control and command have improved significantly this spring and he comes with a high floor as a likely back-of-the-rotation starter.

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Baseball America

Born: 09/01/2002 in Mississauga, Ont.

Ht.: 6’2” / Wt.: 190 / Bats: R / Throws: L

School: Michigan

Drafted: Never Drafted

Age At Draft: 20.9

BA Grade: 40/High

Tools: Fastball: 50. Slider: 50. Changeup: 50. Control: 55.

A native Canadian who spent three years with the 18U National Team in high school, O’Halloran had an up-and-down 2022 with Michigan, but showed solid swing-and-miss stuff and finished the year with 104 strikeouts in 92.2 innings. In 2023, he dominated early in the season and put together a career year, with a 4.11 ERA over 15 starts and 103 innings, as well as a 25.5% strikeout rate and career-low 6% walk rate. The 6-foot-2, 190-pound lefthander throws from a deceptive and low, three-quarter slot and is able to locate his low-90s fastball well to either side of the plate. He averaged 89-91 mph on the pitch this spring and touched 94, and will need to be able to spot the pitch with precision at the next level to keep hitters off of it consistently. His best offering is a high-spin slider in the low 80s, which boasted a 42% miss rate, and it was an equal opportunity bat-misser against both righties and lefties—though given his arm slot and sweepy shape, it should be more consistent in same-side matchups in pro ball. He mixes in a mid-80s changeup with some tumbling action that should be a key pitch for him to prevent platoon advantages in pro ball. O’Halloran doesn’t have the loudest pure stuff, but he could develop into a touch-and-feel back-end starter if he can add a few more ticks of velocity.

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Jays sixth round pick _ OF Jace Bohrofen Arkansas. Rated 66th by MPB Pipeline and 106th by Baseball America. Slot money is $304,700.

Scouting Reports

MLB Pipeline

Ht: 6’ 2” WT: 205 lbs

DOB:10/19/01

The top position player in a deep 2020 Oklahoma high school class loaded with pitching, Bohrofen was a top-three-rounds talent who ultimately couldn’t be lured away from college. He didn’t hit enough to claim a regular job as an Oklahoma freshman or Arkansas sophomore, though he did perform well with wood bats in the Cape Cod League in both summers. He has been one of the most dangerous hitters in the Southeastern Conference this spring and regained his former prospect status.

A left-handed hitter with a sound swing, Bohrofen has improved at making contact and driving the ball in the air throughout his college career. He tried to do too much in his lone season with the Sooners, but since has learned to let his plus raw power come naturally. He has developed a more discerning eye at the plate and his prodigious strength leads to high exit velocities, though his propensity to swing and miss in the strike zone concerns some clubs.

While Bohrofen will get drafted mostly based on his offensive production, he’s a decent athlete. He has fringy-to-average speed and good instincts on the bases and in the outfield corners. He’s a capable defender in left or right field with an average arm.

Baseball America

Drafted: Never Drafted

Age At Draft: 21.7

BA Grade: 40/High

Tools:Hit: 40. Power: 55. Run: 50. Field: 45. Arm: 50.

Bohrofen ranked as the No. 141 prospect in the 2020 class out of high school and stood out for his plus raw power and corner outfield profile. He began his career at Oklahoma but transferred to Arkansas in 2022, and struggled in his first year thanks to contact issues and a high strikeout rate. He turned in a career season in 2023, when the 6-foot-2, 205-pound lefty-hitting outfielder slashed .313/.431/.604 with 16 home runs and 15 doubles in 60 games. Bohrofen was on a torrid streak to start the season, but conference play brought him back down to Earth. He stands upright at the plate with a slightly open front side and has quick hands with consistent, tight turns and an explosive back hip. Bohrofen does have a pull-oriented approach that causes him to pull off the ball at times, and that has created issues specifically with contact against breaking stuff and changeups. He’s a fastball hitter who has done well with velocity and posted a 1.164 OPS against fastballs, but just an .849 OPS against breaking balls and offspeed stuff. He’s an average runner with average arm strength and should be an adequate defender in an outfield corner, though left field is a better fit than right field in pro ball.

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Blue Jays seventh round pick _ SS Nick Goodwin Kansas State (214th). Goodwin was rated 163rd by MLB Pipeline and 138th by Baseball America. His slot bonus is $238,700.

Scouting report

Baseball America

Ht: 6’0” | Wt: 190 | B-T: R-R

Drafted: Never Drafted

Age At Draft: 21.9

BA Grade: 40/High

Tools: Hit: 40. Power: 50. Run: 50. Field: 45. Arm: 55.

Goodwin had a productive spring for Kansas State in 2023 and hit .285/.394/.511 with 12 home runs and 13 stolen bases. He can impact a game in more ways than one, and also has a solid history of performance in the Cape Cod League. The athletic, 6-foot-1, 205-pound righthanded hitter has good strength in his wrists and forearms that produces good bat speed and exit velocities that can reach a maximum near 110 mph. Goodwin is a low-ball hitter and looks to lift for damage, with all of his home runs this spring going to the pull side. Though he has shown the ability to level off on pitches up in the zone, his lower quadrant average speaks much louder. Goodwin is aggressive at the plate but will take his walks. He improved his strikeout rate significantly year-over-year, going from a 23.1% strikeout rate in 2022 to a 13.5% rate in 2022. Defensively, Goodwin possesses instincts and proper actions with an above-average arm that will allow him to stay on the dirt at the next level. Second base may ultimately be his spot, but he will have the ability to move around the dirt and perhaps take on an outfield role as well. He’s a well-rounded player who fits at some point on the second day of the draft.

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MLB Pipeline

An immediate starter at Kansas State, Goodwin tied the school’s freshman home run record with 10 in 2021. He never has posted big numbers for the Wildcats, though he acquitted himself well with wood bats in the Cape Cod League last summer after struggling there the year before. He could become the program’s first position player selected in the top five rounds since Jared King a decade ago. Goodwin has made more consistent contact as a junior, though scouts still consider him more of a power-over-hit guy. He uses his right-handed swing to drive balls in the air to his pull side and could provide 15-20 homers per season in pro ball. He works counts and draw walks, though he could be more selective about which pitches he puts in play. With fringy speed and an arm that rates as average to maybe a tick above, Goodwin is unlikely to stay at shortstop at the next level. He has improved his defensive consistency this spring and can make the routine play, but he profiles better as an offensive second baseman or a utilityman. He made eight errors in 27 games at second on the Cape last summer.

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Blue Jays eighth round pick _ OF Braden Barry, West Virginia (244th over-all). His slot money is $194,500. Batted .290 with 19 doubles, four triples, eight homers and 44 RBIs. Had an .894 OPS in 60 games going 24-for-27 stealing bases ... Played seven games in the MLB Draft League hitting .346 with two doubles, two RBIs. He was 2-for-4 stealing and had a .794 OPS.

Blue Jays ninth round pick/fourth Canadian selection _ Sam Shaw (Victoria, BC) of the Victoria Eagles (274th). He earned Rawlings/Perfect Game Preseason All American First Team for Canada/Puerto Rico region. Slot money is $175,900.

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Fifth Canadian pick _ OF Avery Owusu-Asiedu (Saskatoon, Sask.) of the Southern Illinois University Edwardsville Cougars (283rd) was selected by the Philadelphia Phillies in the ninth round. His slot money is $172,800. The Wisconsin resident hit .293 with 12 doubles, two triples, 15 homers and 48 RBIs. He had a .986 OPS in 53 games.

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Jays 10th round pick _ RHP Josh Mollerus of Oregon (304th). The slot money is $166,200 (304th) After pitching four years for the San Francisco Dons, this spring Mollerus was 3-3 with a 3.44 ERA in 28 games. A reliever, he walked 18 and struck out 50 in 35 2/3 innings.

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Sixth Canadian pick _ LHP Matt Wilkinson (White Rock, BC) of Central Arizona College was selected by the Cleveland Guardians in the 10th round (308th). His slot money is $165,300. Wilkinson was the JUCO pitcher of the year after the Okotoks Dawgs grad was 10-2 in 16 games -- 14 starts -- with a 1.07 ERA pitching for the Vaqueros. He had 136 strikeouts in 84 innings.

Seventh Canadian pick _ OF Pier-Olivier Boucher (Saint-Joseph-de-Bauce, Que.) was selected in the 10th round (309th) by the Atlanta Braves. Boucher’s slot value is $164,800. He hit .335 with 16 homers, 43 RBIs, slugging .619 and was 19-for-22 stealing bases in 57 games.

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First Two Days _ There were seven Canucks selected in the first 10 rounds over the first two days.

A year ago, nine Canucks went in the first 10 rounds led by top man INF Dylan O’Rae (Sarnia, Ont.), a third rounder from Great Lake Canadians, who went to the Milwaukee Brewers, followed by Vancouver-born C Lamar King, who went in the fourth to the San Diego Padres, INF David McCabe (Courtice, Ont.), a former Ontario Blue Jay and Team Ontario Astro, a fourth rounder went to the Braves; FieldHouse’s INF Nate Ochoa (Burlington, Ont.) a sixth rounder, to the Nationals, Toronto Mets’ RHP Jonah Tong (Markham, Ont.) drafted by the New York Mets, former UBC Thunderbird RHP Adam Maier (North Vancouver, BC) a seventh rounder to Atlanta; C Gavin Logan (Oyen, Alta.) selected in the ninth round by the Arizona Diamondbacks, 1B Matt Coutney (Edmonton, Alta.) went in the 10th to the Los Angeles Angels and so did RHP Jacob Zibin (Langley, BC) to the Guardians.

Outside of 2022 the seven selections in the first 10 rounds is the most since 2016 — when nine Canadians were drafted in the first two days.

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Two Day totals

Players selected _ 7

By Organization _ Toronto Blue Jays 2, Atlanta Braves 1, Boston Red Sox 1, Cleveland Guardians 1, Oakland A’s 1, Philadelphia Phillies 1.

By Amateur team _ Academie Baseball Canada 1, FieldHouse Pirates 1, Great Lake Canadians 1, Okotoks Dawgs 1, Ontario Blue Jays 1, Terriers 1, Victoria Eagles 1, Victoria Mariners 1.

By Province _ Ontario 3, British Columbia 2, Quebec 1, Saskatchewan 1.

Elliott: 2023 Draft Blog Day II