July 14, 2023

By Bob Elliott

Canadian Baseball Network

Ten Canadians.

Enough to field a team -- as long as no one gets injured -- but shy of making double figures.

This was expected to be a down year for Canadians in the annual organizational re-fresh with the draft of talented high schoolers and collegians.

But a grand total of 10 Canadians selected of the 614 players chosen by 30 teams in the 20-round draft?

That’s the lowest total ever since Canadian high schoolers were eligible for the draft in 1991 -- excluding the five-round draft in 2020 when five were selected at the height of COVID.

Lowest since 1991 (save for the first pandemic in 100 years) roll that around your tongue a couple of times.

The trouble areas which led to the perfect storm, according to scouts, who obviously could not be named:

_ Players eligible for the draft were born in 2004, 2005 and 2006 (high schoolers and collegians). And when COVID-19 hit in 2020 cancelling most of the season and shortened part of 2021 most players lost tons of reps, time in the batting cage and months of games.

_ One scout said “this is a trend ... agents are pushing huge numbers on kids that are really deep projection players from Canada.” There are only three sons in the Naylor family and yet players continue to ask for “Naylor money.” Said one scout: “I hope these agents don’t continue to kill the Canadian game.” For newcomers, scouts and agent seldom agree. And vice versa.

_ Players are leaving Canada to play with academy teams in the US ... “Greg Hamilton (director of national team program’s) is losing kids off the Junior National Teams roster to travel academies and having trouble scheduling games with minor league teams on Florida trips.”

_ Major league baseball has always been envious of the NFL and the NBA. College programs do all the development -- and all that it entails -- for both football and basketball players. Neither sport has the expense of hassle of developing players. By cutting down the numbers of minor league teams more and more high schoolers are being pushed towards college programs. On Sunday night, I sat shocked and aghast when after watching his two studs — RHP Paul Skenes and Dylan Crews of the LSU Tigers — go 1-2 in the draft LSU coach Jay Johnson was asked what was next for his club. “I’m here to supply talent for the majors.” We’ve heard horror stories of college coaches knocking their players to scouts so they’d come back as a senior ... with less leverage and a smaller bonus.

_ In the glory days of the Blue Jays, we remember writing how “the Bobby Mattick complex was quiet (as the major leaguers moved to Grant Field) but it will be beehive of activity tomorrow when 220 minor leaguers arrive.” Each team has two fewer minor-league stops, which the size of the total roster in the minors down to 180 players. And next year it will downsize again to 160. “In general,” says a scout, “it will be harder to get drafted next year out of high school, 20 less roster spots per team will leave less room.”

_ A veteran scout explained it further; “With smaller organizations and elimination of the rookie level it is far tougher. All players drafted need development but teams don’t have as much time now. There isn’t really a good spot to put a high school player so he has to compete against older players. Rookie league was where they could play for a couple of years to figure it out. Now, they have to go from the Complex League to full season class-A. Before the Blue Jays had two rookie-class teams: one in the New York-Penn, the other in the Northwest League. Both of those leagues don’t exist anymore.”

_ One scout pointed out 20 players will lose a spot in 2024... “do the math ... if a team signs all 20 draft picks, another 20 players will have to be let go. It’s tough out there.”

_ Added another “baseball in Canada is in rough shape.”

But before we drive the team bus off the cliff ... consider ...

“It was just a blip,” said one general manager.

A scouting director agreed calling 2023 an “odd ... very odd year,” recalling the days of the 50-round drafts when as a region Canada ranked 11th over a five-year period for players drafted ... behind No. 10 Ohio of the 53 drafts areas (50 states, Puerto Rico, Washington, DC and Canada). The drop from 50 rounds to 30 eliminated an average of 11 players selected over the previous five years.

“Next year should be better,” said a veteran scout. “There looks to be a deeper talent pool.

Said another evaluator: “Hopefully it will be better next year. There are not any guarantees in scouting. Will the best stay healthy? It is now more difficult to draft high school kids because of fewer teams in minors and they take longer to develop.”

Another man in the know: “This high school class is not finished, mark my words ... quite a few will go to college and be drafted in three years.”

As for waiting until next year ... INF Emilien Pitre (Repentigny Que.) of Kentucky Wildcats, INF Brendan Lawson (Toronto, Ont.) of the Ontario Blue Jays and Académie de Baseball du Canada RHP Jacob Wallace (Pincourt, Que.) are the best.

Pitre was considered by some scouts as “Kentucky’s best hitter this spring -- as a sophomore.” He hit .318 with 16 doubles, one triple, a homer and 51 RBIs. He had a .853 OPS in 61 games.

Lawson is ranked No. 6 on Baseball America’s list of top high schoolers for 2024 and No. 26 on Perfect Game with an arrow (which means he is on the rise). How good is Lawson? Well, he has committed to Florida. Last person we remember committing to Florida was Ontario Blue Jays C George Kottaras, who was transferring from Connors State. He accepted the $300,000 signing bonus from the San Diego Padres.

We don’t remember Adam Loewen (Surrey, BC) being ranked as high as Lawson a year before he was drafted fourth overall in North America in 2002. Both Wallace and Lawson are members of the Junior National Team.

How low is 10 Canadians drafted?

Well, the San Diego Padres selected FieldHouse Pirates’ OF Owen Caissie (Burlington, Ont.) in the second round of the 2020 draft .. as the top Canuck. It consisted of five rounds. Five Canucks were selected.

The only year besides 2020 it was lower was 1990. That’s when only Canadians attending school south of the border were eligible.

One man was chosen that year -- INF Warren Sawkiw (Toronto, Ont.) was drafted in the 20th round by the Detroit Tigers from the Wake Forest Demon Deacons.

Sawkiw, the former Blue Jays broadcaster, turned 55 in January.

Time to turn things around.