Gallagher: Examining former Jay Scott Rolen's case for Cooperstown
Former Toronto Blue Jays third baseman Scott Rolen’s name was checked on 63.2 per cent of baseball writers’ ballots in last year’s National Baseball Hall of Fame voting.
December 15, 2022
By Danny Gallagher
Canadian Baseball Network
How does Scott Rolen end up in a Cooperstown discussion? It puzzles me.
How does a solid but unspectacular third baseman enter the realm of greatness?
How is the one-time Blue Jay with no thunder like George Brett, Mike Schmidt, Chipper Jones and Wade Boggs on the cusp of getting into this sacred hall?
How does an anonymous, quiet player get this close to election into the National Baseball Hall of Fame alongside Jays alumnus Fred McGriff for induction in July of 2023?
What would Eddie Matthews think of this? He’d probably roll his eyes.
Rolen has admirers within the confines of the voting group of the Baseball Writers Association of America. Writers see value in what he has done at the hot corner.
They look at those eight Gold Glove awards and seven All-Star Game appearances. They see what he has done with that little glove. They have witnessed those lightning-like reflexes and strong throws coming from a guy with tight-end measurements of six-foot-four, 245 pounds..
Rolen's case has evolved into a matter of fielding and sabermetrics. Statistics tell you his WAR (Wins Above Replacement) is 70.1%, the ninth best among those holding the 5 spot on your lineup card.
What does WAR mean? I keep having to look it up and I keep having to try to understand it.
In a nutshell, WAR data allows one to compare the relative value of players while providing the context of the relative importance of the positions that they play, incorporating a player's value offensively, defensively, and baserunning.
Rolen's offensive statistics, alone, would not get him into Cooperstown. He hit .281 lifetime with 316 homers and 1,287 RBIs and a mere 2,077 hits. Hardly Cooperstown material, right?
I’m a doubles guy so I will say I love those 516 two-baggers he had. We should add he won the 1997 NL Rookie of the Year award with the Phillies and hit .416 with a 1.230 OPS in the 2006 World Series with the Cardinals.
"This is nuts. in no way, shape or form is anyone with his stats for a third baseman good for the Hall of Fame,'' said David O'Keefe, a documentarian, best-selling author, military historian and professor at Marianopolis College in west-end Montreal. "The bar isn't just lowering, it's plummeting. It's shocking.''
Richard Voss and many others on social media agree with O'Keefe about Rolen. As an old-school purist, I don't think Rolen has all the right tools for Main St. in Cooperstown.
"Not sure he's Hall of Fame worthy,'' Voss said. "I'd group him with Tim Wallach -- great third baseman but not at the level of Ron Santo and Brooks Robinson.''
One person, who has spent an inordinate, exhausting amount of time assessing Rolen's portfolio is Chris Bodig of Redondo Beach, Calif., a SABR member and former producer for ESPN's Baseball Tonight.
Bodig has written several thousand words to go to bat in defence of Rolen on his very fascinating cooperstowncred.com website. Bodig told me Rolen didn't produce what he called "black type'' stats but he made up for his deficiencies with other noteworthy variables.
"His 4,081 career assists are the 11th most in baseball history for a third baseman,'' Bodig said in an interview. "Based on his size, one might have expected him to eventually move to first base but there was no need because he was so good defensively.
"Rolen has always been more of a WAR Hall of Fame candidate than an old-school candidate because his offensive statistics don't leap off the page,’’ Bodig said. “He never led the league in any offensive category. Because he is the leading returning vote-getter on the BBWAA ballot, he's a near-certainty to make the Hall in the next year or so.
"Will he make it this year? I'd say the odds are about 2-1 in favor. He's got to convert about 50 voters from ‘no’ to ‘yes’ to reach 75% but, given the overall weakness of this ballot, it's a distinct possibility.
“And, when it comes to the BBWAA, there has always been a herd mentality. Players with momentum always gain converts. If Rolen goes from 63.2% in 2022 to exactly 75% in 2023, that would be only the seventh biggest jump since 2017 for a player who crossed the 75% finish line.''
If was that herd mentality that saw Tim Raines and Larry Walker – with WAR data helping out -- gain entry into Cooperstown on the 10th and final ballot following years of lackluster support.
Now, Rolen gets to ride the wave of herd mentality to make it. You can see where Rolen is currently trending nicely in the early rounds of voting tracked by Ryan Thibodaux, who is @notmrtibbs on Twitter.
Don’t be surprised if Rolen is the only one elected through this writers’ ballot. We’ll find out Jan. 24.