Inside the numbers: A look at Blue Jays' pen, potential trade deadline approach

By the numbers, Ontario Blue Jays and Junior National Team alum Jordan Romano (Markham, Ont.) has been the Toronto Blue Jays’ top reliever this season. Photo: Amanda Fewer

August 26, 2020

By Lucas Casaletto

Canadian Baseball Network

Don’t look now, but the Toronto Blue Jays are making a playoff push.

The Blue Jays, now 15-15, are playing good baseball without Bo Bichette (team leading 1.1 bWAR) and closer Ken Giles.

For that reason alone, you have to admire what the club has accomplished.

So, about that bullpen

Let’s start on the pitching side, specifically Toronto’s bullpen, which now leads baseball in fWAR (2.6).

No one expected that.

In addition to being the most valuable group in terms of WAR, Blue Jays relievers rank fourth in ERA (3.25) and FIP (3.30), sixth in K/9 (10.2), and ninth in innings pitched (121 ⅔). The Blue Jays have received positive contributions from essentially every reliever this season but it’s Jordan Romano (Markham, Ont.), Rafael Dolis, Ryan Borucki, and Thomas Hatch that have been the most impressive.

Maybe outside of Dolis, none of these pitchers were guaranteed a spot on the Opening Day roster. Romano’s fastball-slider combination was deadly in the shortened version of the spring, and thanks to an uptick in velocity, the Canadian leads all Blue Jays pitchers in bWAR (1.2) and is now sitting pretty in a setup/closer role with Giles out.

Borucki, who missed all but a few innings last season after undergoing shoulder surgery, looks reinvented. Despite a few rocky outings recently, the southpaw has been near unhittable thanks to a devastating sinker that regularly tops out at 95 mph. Many, then, would question why the Blue Jays wouldn’t prefer Borucki in the starting rotation. The answer lies simply in the fact that he’s coming off an injury-riddled campaign and that his stuff is playing out in shorter outings.

Then we have Hatch and the mysterious Julian Merryweather; two pitchers featured on some top prospect’s lists. Hatch, who was acquired around last year’s trade deadline from the Cubs for David Phelps, was widely regarded as major-league ready. This seemed proven after his stint in double-A with the Fisher Cats, where Hatch was brilliant down the stretch. In just under 13 innings, Hatch is hovering around 10 K/9 with a great fastball and solid, if unspectacular offspeed pitches. His advanced metrics back his early results, too.

Finally, we have Merryweather - the 28-year-old prospect known by many as the “guy we got for Josh Donaldson”. The right-hander’s story is a fascinating one, and though it’s odd to see someone in their late twenties pitch in their major-league debut, Merryweather is turning heads.

Sure, it’s only been two appearances, so expectations need to be tampered, but Merryweather really has looked brilliant. He’s averaging 98 mph on the fastball with six strikeouts in 3 ⅔ innings. It’s too early to know for sure but the Blue Jays may very well have something in the pitcher that many were quick to scoff at.

Injury-riddled rotation

Toronto’s heavily-relied on pen comes as the club tries to survive with only three healthy starters. Hyun Jin-Ryu, Tanner Roark, and Chase Anderson remain, with Matt Shoemaker (lat), Nate Pearson (elbow), and Trent Thornton (elbow) on the injured list.

Because these are all relatively recent injuries, it’s possible the trio misses most, if not the rest of the season (specifically Pearson). That’s why many pundits are pointing to the trade market ahead of the August 31st deadline. There are a few ways Ross Atkins can approach this. Either he goes the risk-free route by acquiring a rental to provide a little depth, or he thinks outside the box, opting instead for a bigger, statement-making deal.

Cleveland’s Zach Plesac and Mike Clevinger check those boxes, if Atkins does in fact plan on shocking the world. The only reason these two might be available is because of their recent behaviour after they carelessly left the team’s own bubble. They were then sent packing, so to speak, to Cleveland’s alternate site. Clevinger vehemently apologized and is now back with the team, and while Plesac admitted to regretting his decision, he then tried to explain his thought process in a strange series of videos. It wasn’t a good look, to be sure, but they’re valuable arms and if the price isn’t astronomical, there’s certainly a fit.

The Blue Jays could also look at San Francisco’s Kevin Gausman or Angels righty Dylan Bundy - two nice looking pitchers doing good things on bad teams. The club also seems to be looking into a pair of Pittsburgh Pirates starters in Trevor Williams and Chad Kuhl, according to Jon Morosi of MLB.com. Both Williams and Kuhl have pitched well, with the latter making a few appearances out of the bullpen. They’re also under team control for the next few years.

Vogelbach in, Rowdy out?

The Blue Jays’ acquisition of 1B Dan Vogelbach on Sunday left many wondering what the future is for Rowdy Tellez with the club. Photo: Toronto Blue Jays/Twitter

The Blue Jays and Mariners completed a trade, albeit a small one Sunday. Toronto acquired first baseman and former top prospect Dan Vogelbach for cash considerations, raising eyebrows as to what this now means for Rowdy Tellez. As things stand, it appears to be status quo, as the Blue Jays simply may have wanted to address the bench.

Which we’ll touch on now.

Brandon Drury and Joe Panik have been dreadful with both not being worthy of a major-league roster spot. For what it’s worth, the Blue Jays seem enamoured with Panik as a clubhouse presence but it’s likely we have seen the end of the Drury experiment (-minus 0.9 bWAR this season).

If the front office is keen at making multiple upgrades, it wouldn’t be surprising to see Atkins address this. Anthony Alford and Thomas Pannone were both designated for assignment, and there’s the Tellez factor, so they could be used as trade bait. Gabriel Moreno, one of the club’s talented young catchers, also recently reported to the Jays’ alternate site, raising some eyebrows. Trade? Perhaps, or maybe it means nothing.

Brewers infielder Eric Sogard’s name has been floated around as a possible target, mainly because he’s familiar with the team and clubhouse. Tommy La Stella - a quietly productive lefty - is another fit as a versatile defender and currently hitting .269/.331/.452 with 126 wRC+.

(Travis Shaw left Tuesday’s game with knee discomfort further increasing the possibility of an upgrade)

Break out, Biggio

Cavan Biggio is enjoying a breakout season as the Toronto Blue Jays’ leadoff hitter. Photo: USA Today

Bichette gets all of the attention while Vlad has been hyped up as one of the best prospects the sport has ever seen. And then there’s Cavan Biggio.

Through August, Biggio is hitting .310/.449/.577 with seven doubles, four home runs to go with 16 walks in 20 games. He now leads the team in fWAR (1.4) and looks every bit the part as a leadoff hitter; at least as long as Bo remains out. It also helps when Biggio does things like this in support of his teammates.

Defensively, the versatile Biggio can play across the diamond, making starts at second base and all three outfield spots this season. Though his upside remains relatively capped because of his age (he’s already 25), Biggio looks like he’ll be more than a serviceable major leaguer, chipping in with power, good plate discipline, and versatility.

That will play for any team.

A Tale of Two Tendencies

There is a lot of good to unpack so far this season but there are some concerning trends hampering a few Blue Jays hitters; notably Danny Jansen and Vlad Guerrero.

In a tale of two tendencies, Guerrero is hitting the ball on the ground a lot. Among qualified hitters, the 21-year-old’s ground ball rate is a shocking 56 percent - ninth highest in baseball. In contrast, Vlad is hitting the ball in the air a lot less, a mere 25 percent of the time. He’s making hard contact, which is great, but until he can alter his launch angle and get the ball in the air, the results will be much of the same.

Jansen has been a polar opposite of Vlad. His problem lies in soft contact. His fly ball rate is at 48 percent on the season, compared to a 23 percent ground ball rate. That’s great, only Jansen enters Wednesday’s game with a hard contact rate of 24 percent and one of the lowest in all of baseball.

Jansen was known as an offensive-minded catcher that rose quickly through the minors, establishing himself as one of the Blue Jays’ most exciting prospects. Considering many pointed to Jansen as a potential bounce back candidate, the early results aren’t flattering.

Statistics courtesy: FanGraphs, Statcast, Baseball Reference