October 11, 2019

By Jay Blue

Blue Jay from Away

We're going to start our more in-depth look at the Dunedin Blue Jays by looking at starting pitchers. Like with Lansing, three pitchers topped the 100-inning mark and all three were in Dunedin for the long haul.

We begin with the pitchers who made the most starts and work our way downwards from there. If a player played for more than one team over the course of the season, he'll be grouped according to the club he played the most with.

Maximo Castillo, 20, was our Pitcher of the Year for the Blue Jays. The 6-foot-2, 256 pound Venezuelan righty proved his ability to be a workhorse, logging his second season of 130 innings or more (130 1/3) in 24 starts for the D-Jays. He was easily the club's best starter, posting a 2.69 ERA and 1.10 WHIP, striking out 21.8% of batters (up 1.5% from last year in Lansing) while walking only 5.4% (down 2.0% from last year in Lansing). Castillo's success at his young age goes to show that he's someone that we should be watching, but he's been flying under the radar with guys like Eric Pardinho and Nate Pearson grabbing the attention. Watch Castillo pitch in Double-A, beginning before his 21st birthday in 2020.

6-foot-3 lefty Nick Allgeyer was one of the more impressive pitchers I saw in spring training and he had a solid first full season of professional baseball after being drafted in the 12th round of the 2018 draft. Jumping up from Vancouver last year to Dunedin this year, Allgeyer didn't allow more than two earned runs in a game until May 10 and had 10 starts in which he allowed one run or fewer but only two of those were after July began. Allgeyer logged 118 1/3 innings in 23 appearances (22 starts), with a 3.95 ERA and 1.20 WHIP, striking out 20.9% of batters and walking 5.8%. But if we look at his numbers in July and August, he had a 6.00 ERA and a 14.3% strikeout rate while his walk rate ballooned to 7.9%. Whether it was fatigue or the league figured him out, it's hard to tell without having seen him. I'd look for Allgeyer, 23, to either start back in Dunedin in 2020 or move up to New Hampshire.

Graham Spraker, 24, has had some success at the Advanced-A level giving the former 31st-round pick of the 2017 draft by the Jays a little bit of helium in his standing within the organization. The 6-foot-3 righty is still way under the radar despite his 2.90 ERA and 1.17 WHIP over 108 2/3 innings for Dunedin with 16 of his 24 outings coming as starts. Spraker made a start on June 6 with the Buffalo Bisons, tossing 5 1/3 innings with a run off three hits and two walks against him while striking out five. His assignment to the Arizona Fall League shows us that he may very well be cementing his role as a starter in the minds of the Blue Jays' brass. Look for him to start 2020 in New Hampshire.

23-year-old Turner Larkins made three stops for the Blue Jays in 2019 but got most of his action in Dunedin, throwing 89 1/3 innings there, starting 13 times in 23 games. Larkins had a 4.13 ERA and 1.47 WHIP, striking out 19.4% of batters while walking only 6.4%, generally keeping the ball on the ground well (42.9% ground ball rate). Larkins also made a start with Buffalo, allowing seven runs on eight hits (including three home runs) with two walks and three strikeouts in six innings on May 25 and he made an appearances out of the bullpen in New Hampshire on July 3, pitching a scoreless eighth inning, giving up a hit and a walk with one strikeout. I can see Larkins back in New Hampshire next year but his role will likely be more of a swing man than a starter full time.

26-year-old Justin Dillon split his season between Dunedin and New Hampshire in 2019 after pitching at three levels in 2018. Dillon's jumping around was over in 2019 as he made his first 13 appearances with Dunedin and his next 13 with New Hampshire for a clean split. With Dunedin, Dillon tossed 67 innings with a 3.90 ERA and 1.18 WHIP, striking out 21.% of batters and walking just 4.7%. After his promotion, he saw some regression, despite a 3,32 ERA and 1.19 WHIP. His strikeout rate dropped to 17.4% and his walk rate rose to 7.0%. Still, Dillon's FIP was lowered from 4.22 in Dunedin to 3.94 in New Hampshire. Look for him to start the year in NH in 2020.

2018 eighth-round pick Joey Murray was outstanding throughout the season. Despite barely touching 90 mph on the radar gun, his "invisiball" confounded hitters at three levels as the 23 year old reached New Hampshire by the end of the year. Murray feasted on Midwest League hitters in his first stop in Lansing, and had a 3.82 ERA and 1.30 WHIP but struck out 30.5% of batters while walking 9.2% in 30 2/3 innings. He moved up to Dunedin for the largest part of the season, tossing 63 innings with a stellar 1.71 ERA and 0.94 WHIP, striking out a whopping 31.3% of batters and lowering his walk rate to 7.7%. Murray was promoted yet again and, while the competition in double-A was tougher, he still had a 3.50 ERA and 1.26 WHIP with a 28.3% strikeout rate and 9.8% walk rate in 43 2/3 innings. I think Murray has put himself on the radar of Blue Jays watchers and will likely start in New Hampshire next year.

Coming to the Blue Jays at the trade deadline in the deal that sent Marcus Stroman to the New York Mets, Simeon Woods Richardson, still just 18 years of age during the season, showed why he was such a highly coveted prospect. While Woods Richardson had a 4.25 ERA and 1.21 WHIP over 78 1/3 innings with the Class-A Columbia Fireflies of the South Atlantic League, he had just a 2.54 ERA and 0.88 WHIP over 28 1/3 innings with the Advanced-A Dunedin Blue Jays, posting a 27.1% strikeout rate and 6.5% walk rate as one of the youngest pitchers in the league. The Blue Jays will look to see what they have in this young man as he'll likely return to Dunedin, still just 19 years old in 2020.

22-year-old Kyle Johnston didn't really make a great impression on the Blue Jays after he was acquired from the Washington Nationals at the trade deadline. He had a 4.03 ERA and 1.23 WHIP with the Nationals' Advanced-A club in Potomac, striking out 100 and walking 37 in 105 innings. After the trade, however, Johnston tossed 19 2/3 innings and wasn't able to find his control, walking 22.0% of batters while striking out only 14.3%. He'll probably return to Dunedin after a fresh start to 2020.

Julian Merryweather, the pitcher the Blue Jays got in the trade that sent Josh Donaldson to the Braves, had a rough season. While he was clocked at 100 mph at some point in his rehab from Tommy John, he only made it onto the field for two league games, allowing two runs in two innings on four hits with three strikeouts for the GCL Blue Jays and he gave up four runs on five hits and two walks with four strikeouts in four innings in Dunedin before complications from his rehab shut him down. The Jays will hope that Merryweather gets back to himself and gets to the majors next year.

Relief Pitchers

We continue our more in-depth look at the Dunedin Blue Jays by looking at relief pitchers. We begin with the pitchers who made the most appearances and work our way downwards from there. If a player played for more than one team over the course of the season, he'll be grouped according to the club he played the most with.

Emerson Jimenez, a pitcher who was once an infielder whom the Blue Jays took a flyer on a couple of years ago, led the D-Jays in appearances. He bounced back from a rough year in 2018 in Lansing (with a 7.58 ERA) and had some solid numbers but there are others that he'll need to improve on. In 38 games and 57 innings, Jimenez had a 2.84 ERA and 1.33 WHIP but struck out only 15.5% of batters while walking 9.6%. Jimenez is known for having a big arm but he'll need to be more effective sitting batters down. He's still just 24 and should start the year in 2020 back in Dunedin.

Kyle Weatherly is another under-the-radar name who worked hard in the 2019 season for Dunedin. Weatherly just turned 25 on October 3 and put together a solid season for the D-Jays, tossing 59 innings over 37 outings and posting a 3.81 ERA and 1.44 WHIP, boosting his strikeout rate to a career-high 23.8% but he saw his walk rate jump to 12.6% (also a career-high). Weatherly did get 57.1% of batted balls on the ground, the most he's had in his career and the numbers would suggest that he's added something to his repertoire that has helped him get more balls on the ground as well as more swings and misses. I think Weatherly could be crowded out of a spot in New Hampshire to start next year but that's not to say he's not deserving of one.

Connor Law, a 6-foot-4, 25-year-old righty who was signed as a non-drafted free agent in 2017, had a tremendous season (mostly) with Dunedin and joins the growing ranks of NDFAs who are rising through the Jays' system. Law started his season making four appearances for Lansing where he didn't allow an earned run in seven innings, walking just one and striking out 13. He moved up to Dunedin and threw 31 times for the Blue Jays, logging 44 innings with a 2.86 ERA and 1.59 WHIP. That high WHIP comes from a 12.4% walk rate which will need to come down but he was effective, striking out 26.3% of batters and got more outs on the ground (43.6%) than on fly balls (35.0%). Law will probably also fall victim to a numbers game if New Hampshire's bullpen fills up and start 2020 in Dunedin.

Our Reliever of the Year for the Dunedin Blue Jays was Brad Wilson, a 23-year-old righty who was a 13th-round pick out of Ohio Dominican University in 2018. In his first full season, Wilson went to the mound 28 times for the Blue Jays, saving nine games and throwing 38 innings with a 1.42 ERA and 0.84 WHIP, striking out 32.2% and walking just 6.6% of batters while getting 46.5% of balls in play on the ground. While most numbers regressed as he was promoted to New Hampshire, Wilson got more balls on the ground with 51.9% of balls in play on the ground. Wilson struck out 22.7% and walked 8.0% of batters over 18 innings with a 3.50 ERA and 1.28 WHIP, giving up the only home run he allowed all year for the Fisher Cats. I think Wilson will return to New Hampshire to start 2020 and could be in Buffalo by the end of the year.

Another non-drafted free agent, Jackson Rees took a mammoth step forward in 2019, dominating at two stops in A-ball. With 25 1/3 innings in Lansing, Rees had a 0.36 ERA and 0.67 WHIP, walking just four batters (4.4%) and striking out 44 (47.8%). He moved up to Dunedin and didn't miss a beat, tossing 36 1/3 innings with a 0.99 ERA and 1.05 WHIP, striking out 30.6% of batters while walking just 7.6%. He's also getting a ton of ground balls, likely due to weak contact. Now 25, Rees will probably keep moving quickly, particularly as he's pitching very well in the Arizona Fall League and could start 2020 in New Hampshire.

We haven't heard much from Mike Ellenbest, the Jays' 24th-round pick in the 2016 draft, lately but he reestablished himself as he was converted to a relief role after missing the entire 2018 season. In 22 appearances in Dunedin, Ellenbest tossed 48 1/3 innings with a 2.42 ERA and 1.51 WHIP, striking out 16.8% of batters while walking 11.5%. The peripheral numbers aren't fantastic but Ellenbest did get a look-see in New Hampshire, making three appearances and throwing 6 1/3 innings, allowing a run on five hits with a walk and a strikeout. Ellenbest has also been excellent in the Arizona Fall League and could start 2020 in New Hampshire.

Righty Matt Shannon struggled with injuries in 2019 but the 6-foot-3, 24 year old logged 24 2/3 innings for the Dunedin Blue Jays, missing almost two months from early June to late July, making a couple of rehab starts in the GCL before returning to the Florida State League for early August, getting shut down again after August 7. Overall, Shannon had a 4.74 ERA and 1.78 WHIP in Dunedin, striking out 24.4% of batters and walking 9.2%. Hopefully he'll be healthy in 2020 but he'll probably start the year back in Dunedin.

Maverik Buffo also struggled with injuries in 2019, getting into only 11 games for the Dunedin Blue Jays and throwing 19 innings with a 6.16 ERA and 1.84 WHIP with a 17.6% strikeout rate and 13.2% walk rate. He is also in the Arizona Fall League this autumn and he's struggled somewhat in the first half of the season.

Hitters

We conclude our in-depth look at the Dunedin Blue Jays by looking at the hitters. If a player split his season by playing for more than one team, keep in mind he'll be considered with the team for which he had the most plate appearances.

Catchers

The Midwest League couldn't contain the 5-foot-9, 220-pound catcher Alejandro Kirk. The 20-year-old Mexican started his season in Lansing, hitting an incredible .299/.427/.519 with six doubles, a triple and three home runs over 21 games before he was moved up to Dunedin. Most impressive was that he walked 18 times and struck out just eight in his full-season debut, having posted a 1.001 OPS in Bluefield in 2018. Kirk then moved up to Dunedin for 71 more games, hitting a solid .288/.395/.446 and, while his power game didn't show up in the form of home runs, he did hit 25 doubles and four homers with 38 walks and 31 strikeouts in just 276 plate appearances. While Kirk's numbers took a dive in June after a strong start to his Dunedin tenure, he went from a .671 OPS in June to a .780 OPS in July to an .869 OPS in August, a month in which he hit all four of his Florida State League home runs. Kirk was no slouch behind the plate. Throwing out 33% of potential base stealers in Lansing (without having any passed balls) and throwing out 39% of potential base stealers in Dunedin. Kirk gets consistently good reviews for his backstopping abilities and, from what I've seen, is very smooth behind the plate. The biggest concern for most is going to be his weight as he gets older. He'll need to trim down to be able to maintain a high workload behind the plate but the bat remains very promising. I can see Kirk starting 2019 back in Dunedin for a month or two before moving up to Double-A.

Joining Kirk behind the plate in Dunedin was 2018 college draftee Christopher Bec. The fifth rounder from last year's draft held his own after getting bumped up from Vancouver last year, hitting .232/.343/.333 with nine doubles, a triple and two home runs in 54 games and 199 plate appearances. Bec's specialty continues to be getting on base, as he walked in 14.1% of his plate appearances, exactly the same percentage as last year, and his strikeout rate went up 3.3%, up to 21.1% despite skipping a level. The other interesting thing about Bec is his speed and ability to steal bases as he stole 16 bases in 2019 and was caught just three times. Bec threw out 21.1% of potential base stealers with seven passed balls. I have a hard time seeing Bec move up to New Hampshire but it might be that I haven't done a complete tally of where I think which players will start 2020 just yet, but he'll either back in Dunedin or in New Hampshire.

Catcher Javier Hernandez was the D-Jays' third-string catcher but didn't play much all season, possible due to injury (I'm more likely to think that his frequent trips to the IL were more because of the "Phantom IL"). Hernandez played in just five games, going 1/2 with a walk and five strikeouts.

Infielders

In some wishful thinking by the Blue Jays, Kacy Clemens was sent to New Hampshire to start the 2019 season but the former Texas Longhorn (and son of Roger Clemens) hit just .145/.247/.169 with two doubles, and had an 11.3% walk rate and 29.9% strikeout rate before he was moved down to Dunedin in mid-May. Clemens was still in a funk for the rest of May, but he hit five home runs in June (with a .749 OPS) before slumping again in July (.432 OPS) before coming out of it with an excellent August (.260/.366/.448). Overall, Clemens hit .204/.294/.350 with nine doubles, two triples and 10 home runs, stealing five bases (without getting caught) while posting an 11.6% walk rate and a 28.2% strikeout rate. The key for Clemens to his strong August was a strikeout rate that was significantly lower than for the rest of the season (21.4%). If he can continue to put the ball in play more with the kind of solid production he had in August, He'll be much more of a prospect going forward. I think he'll get another chance to prove himself in double-A next year.

21-year-old Samad Taylor showed a lot of growth in his 2018 season in Lansing but he struggled when he moved up to Dunedin in 2019. The second baseman had a .216/.325/.364 slash line, walking in a healthy 12.8% of plate appearances but striking out in 27.9%, 9.2% more often than he did in 2018. Taylor's season was up and down as he had a .726 OPS in April but a truly terrible .374 OPS in May. In June it was .781 while he had a stellar July with four of his seven home runs and an .895 OPS. That fell to .693 in August as he struck out 31.0% of the time despite seven doubles, a triple and two home runs. Despite the struggles putting the ball in play, Taylor's extra-base hit numbers are very solid for a player of his size and age (his pop reminds me a bit of Jonathan Davis) while he showed off his speed, stealing 26 bases in 36 attempts. I think Taylor will probably get another couple of months in Dunedin to start 2020.

23-year-old Cullen Large stayed on the field for most of 2019 (although he did miss a big chunk of June) after losing almost all of 2018 because of an injury. Large played 84 games with Dunedin, mostly at third base, and had a .269/.360/.408 slash line, hitting 23 doubles, three triples and four home runs with an 11.3% walk rate and a 26.5% strikeout rate. He finished with 24 games in double-A New Hampshire where he didn't really take many walks, just one in 99 plate appearances while he struck out 31 times. He had a .234/.273/.330 slash line with three doubles and three triples. Large has gotten into the Arizona Fall League and is playing fairly well at the time of this writing. I think Large will be back in New Hampshire in 2020.

Kevin Vicuna, 21, was the most prolific shortstop for the Dunedin Blue Jays, playing 94 games at that position with another 13 at second base and five at third. In all (including DH games), he played 112 games for Dunedin and hit .250/.314/.326 with 19 doubles, four triples and a home run, stealing 19 bases in 28 tries. Vicuna doesn't strike out much (relatively) but he still whiffed at an 18.6% and walked at a 6.8% rate, a career high for him. Vicuna played in three games with the Buffalo Bisons in August and hit .429/.500/.714, going 3/7 with a home run and just one strikeout. I can see Vicuna either in Dunedin or New Hampshire next year, depending on where the chips fall with other infielders.

21-year-old Jesus Navarro was off and on the IL all season, playing in just 41 games for the Dunedin Blue Jays after spending 2018 in Lansing and Vancouver. In 138 plate appearances, Navarro hit just .198/.277/.231 with two doubles and a triple, stealing two bases in three attempts. Navarro had a healthy 9.4% walk rate while his strikeout rate of 21.0% was near his career high. I can see Navarro back in Dunedin next year to hopefully get more playing time.

Outfielders

Leading the Dunedin Blue Jays in games in the outfield was Chavez Young, who played 111 games for Dunedin this year. Young, the lone Bahamian in the Jays' organization spent his Age-21 season having a solid season, posting a .247/.315/.354 slash line with 17 doubles, four triples and six home runs, stealing 24 bases in 35 tries. Young struggled to generate a lot of power but his second half of the year (well, July and August) had him hitting for a much better average than the early part of the year. Young's walk rate was down 3.0% from his strong 2018 in Lansing, to 7.8% while his strikeout rate was up 4.2% to 22.8%. That said, Young, now 22, could either repeat Dunedin to start the year, or he could move up to New Hampshire in 2020. A lot depends on the players around him and his performance in spring training.

Some were skeptical when Cal Stevenson was sent to Dunedin to start 2019 after playing in Bluefield in 2018, skipping completely over two levels. The worst seemed to come true as Stevenson had just a .587 OPS in April, but he quickly turned things around, posting an .832 OPS in May, a .742 OPS in June an a .920 OPS in July before he was traded to the Houston Astros in the deal that sent Aaron Sanchez and Joe Biagini away for Derek Fisher. Overall, in 90 games with Dunedin, Stevenson had a .298/.388/.393 slash line, hitting nine doubles, four triples and five home runs while posting another stellar 12.8% walk rate while striking out in just 13.3% of plate appearances. He boosted his walk rate to 19.0% after the trade, hitting .247/.390/.346 with the Fayetteville Woodpeckers of the Carolina League in 23 games. Stevenson's eye, bat and arm (19 outfield assists for Dunedin) will be missed in the Blue Jays organization.

Born in Lagos, Nigeria and raised in the Ottawa area, Demi Orimoloye (Orleans, Ont.) played his first season in the Jays' organization with some mixed success. Always considered to have huge tools, Orimoloye's contact ability has been a work in progress when he was with the Brewers' organization, but he showed flashes of what he might yet become in 2019 with the Dunedin Blue Jays. Orimoloye had just a .583 OPS in April and a .439 OPS in May, leading many to question the return for Curtis Granderson at the August trade deadline last year. But Orimoloye had a monster June in him, hitting .342/.407/.644 for the month with five home runs and a Florida State League Player of the Month award. Orimoloye's performance slunk backwards in July (.634 OPS) and August (.690 OPS) for a more consistent but still weaker end to the season. Overall, Demi hit .240/.291/.386 with 18 doubles, three triples and 12 home runs but only walked in 5.6% of his 446 plate appearances and struck out a career-high 28.0% of the time. Orimoloye is going to need to figure out what he did in June in order to recapture his mojo going into 2020. I think he'll start back in Dunedin as a 23 year old but could be moved up within a couple of months if he shows that he can be more consistent in capitalizing on his tremendous raw power.

Ryan Noda, 23, is also looking for more consistency in his season as he has been known to be prone to hot streaks. Noda had a solid season, hitting .238/.372/.418 for the D-Jays, hitting 27 doubles, a triple and 13 home runs while stealing 14 bases in 16 attempts. While his walk rate dropped from his incredible 2018 rate (down to 15.8% from 20.7%), his strikeout rate rose to 29.4%, giving him some contact issues. There's a lot to like about Noda's game as he showed some versatility on the diamond, playing both outfield corner positions as well as first base. He bookended his season with strong months, posting an .815 OPS in April and .856 in July and August combined. Like many others, if he can maintain consistency throughout a full season as he moves up, Noda will be a player to watch.

Norberto Obeso, a 24-year-old, lefthanded-hitting Mexican outfielder played 82 games with the Blue Jays and hit a respectable .262/.341/.354 after poorer numbers in Lansing in 2018. He hit 14 doubles, four triples and a home run, walking in 10.4% of plate appearances and striking out in 17.3%. I think he could move up to New Hampshire but he's likely to be a fourth outfielder going forward.

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