Munro: Breaking down Guerrero Jr.'s MVP worthy season
November 20, 2021
By Neil Munro
Canadian Baseball Network
In the 2021 season, Vladimir Guerrero Jr. not only reached the level of slugging achievements as a batter that had been predicted for him, he exceeded them in record fashion.
Leading the Toronto Blue Jays to within one game of a playoff spot, he batted .311 with 111 RBI and a league leading 48 home runs (tied with Kansas City’s Salvador Perez for the HR title). For good measure, the Montreal-born slugger also led the American League in runs scored (123), total bases (363), on-base percentage (.401) and slugging percentage (.601). He set the all-time major league standard for the most home runs by a player aged 22 or younger, breaking the previous records set by Hall of Famers Eddie Mathews (47 HR in 1953) and Joe DiMaggio (46 HR in 1937). For those stat afficionados out there who place a premium on baseball analytics, suffice it to say that Guerrero led the American League in everything.
As predicted by most analysts however, Guerrero finished second to Shohei Ohtani in the American League MVP vote. While Ohtani was a unanimous pick, Guerrero was almost a unanimous choice for second in the vote – Kansas City’s Salvador Perez took one second place vote. It was a good showing for the 2021 Blue Jays as Marcus Semien finished third, Bo Bichette finished in 12th in the vote, Robbie Ray placed 16th while Teoscar Hernández finished in 18th place. It would seem that Guerrero Jr. will have to work on his pitching skills if he is to break through and capture the MVP award.
The Most Valuable Player Award is presented annually to the outstanding player in each league of Major League Baseball. Its earlier formats varied substantially until the voting method was standardized for the 1931 season. An MVP award was given out for the first time in 1911, and was known as the Chalmers Award at the time. No MVP award was given between 1915 and 1921, and after that, the method of determining the winner varied significantly from league to league. The best example of this was the American League MVP vote for the 1927 season. Babe Ruth, having blasted 60 home runs with 164 RBI and a .356 batting average, received the grand total of zero votes, while Canada’s own Frank O’Rourke (Hamilton, Ont.) received six votes to place 13th overall. That season, O’Rourke batted .268 with 1 HR and 39 RBI for the St. Louis Browns.
Since 1931, it has been awarded by a vote of the Baseball Writers' Association of America (BBWAA). The number of writers voting and the point distribution has changed somewhat over time, but since 1961 it has been based on the current model of 14 points for a first place vote, 9 points for a second place vote and so on down to 1 point for a tenth place vote. An MVP Award share is calculated as the number of points a player received for the award in a particular season, divided by the total points of all first-place votes for that year. For example, in 2021 Tyler O’Neill (Maple Ridge, B.C.) placed 8th in the vote for the National League MVP, garnering 62 points of a possible 420 points (had he been the unanimous winner). Thus, he earns 62/420 = 0.148 of an MVP Award share for 2021. The table below outlines the number of MVP Award shares captured by all Canadian players receiving at least one vote since the 1931 season.
Canadian Players’ MVP Award Shares
Guerrero Jr. also becomes the fourth Canadian batter to lead his league in home runs. If you can name the other three players, you are a true baseball fanatic. Of course, Larry Walker (Maple Ridge, B.C.) led the N.L. with 49 dingers in 1997, his MVP season. Tip O’Neill (Woodstock, Ont.) not only led the American Association in homers (14) playing with the St. Louis Browns in 1887 but he won the triple crown batting .435 with 123 RBI. His batting average remains the second best in major league history (to Hugh Duffy’s .440 mark compiled in 1894) and for good measure his 167 runs scored ranks as the fourth highest total in MLB history (tied with Lou Gehrig). The other Canadian batter to win a home run title was George Wood (Pownal, P.E.I.), who connected for seven round trippers playing with the N.L. Detroit Wolverines in 1882.
The table below outlines the progression over time of the home run single season “record” attained by Canadian batters.
In his brief major league career, Guerrero Jr. already has seven multi-home run games, including five in the 2021 season. In 2022, he will move into the top 10 ranking of all Canadians with multi-home run games, as seen in the table below.
Canadians With Two or More Home Runs in a Game
Notes: George Wood was the first Canadian batter with a two-home run game (on July 24, 1882). John Irwin (Toronto, Ont.) hit two home runs on October 5, 1887 (and only three in his entire career) Ferguson Jenkins (Chatham, Ont.) is the only Canadian pitcher to hit two home runs in a game (connecting twice against the Montreal Expos, on September 1, 1971)
As you can see, Guerrero Jr. joins Walker (three times), Votto (three times), Justin Morneau (New Westminster, B.C.) and Michael Saunders (Victoria, B.C.) as the only Canadian batters to have hit three home runs in a single game. Guerrero connected for his trifecta on April 27 against the Washington Nationals while the team played in Dunedin. Two of his homers were surrendered by Max Scherzer, the National League Cy Young third-place finisher for 2021. For good measure, Guerrero Jr. also drove in seven runs to clinch the Jays’ 9-5 victory.
The future would certainly appear to be limitless for Guerrero as he has probably not yet reached his prime as a batter. Of special interest will be a statistical comparison of Guerreor Jr. with his dad. His Hall of Fame father established these levels of achievement for Junior to shoot for:
Runs scored: 124 (Guerrero Jr. just missed with 123)
Base hits: 206
Total bases: 366 (just missed again with 363)
Home runs: 44 (already surpassed)
RBI: 131
Batting average: .345
Bases on balls: 84 (already surpassed with Junior’s 86 in 2021)
In future years, Vladimir can also take a shot at the Canadian slugging records of 49 home runs (by Walker) and 130 RBI held jointly by Walker and Morneau (both achieved in their MVP years).