Rob Seguin’s annual spring look at the Jays from RF George Springer (above) to the lineup to the deadline to the Buffalo Bisons lineup.

March 17, 2025

Jays Spring Training 2025: “No more Springer Dingers?”

By Rob Seguin

Canadian Baseball Network

Dunedin _ I’m taking a different approach to my annual spring training article.

Since there is an abundance of analytics resources available online, and too many journalists covering every interesting or trivial detail from Florida, I thought it might be more fun to play out two scenarios:

1. Positive Scenario: They play at the top end of their potential, get some positive surprises from their system and some competitive breaks (by and large it’s been that way this spring.

2. Negative Scenario: They (again) perform below expectations

Positive Scenario

Record: 90 wins, 72 losses 2nd in the AL East with Wild-Card playoff position

This is not yet (see negative scenario below) a rebuilding year, what with Vladimir Guerrero (Montreal, Que.), Bo Bichette, Chris Bassitt, Max Scherzer, Chad Green, Erik Swanson, Brendon Little and Ryan Yarbrough all on expiring contracts, the Jays are as all-in as their budget resources will allow (they seem to target their salary budget right at the luxury tax threshold of $241M).

This scenario assumes:

 They release George Springer.

 They promote Alan Roden to the MLB to take Springer’s spot in right field and not Joey Loperfido or any other outfield prospect.

 Alejandro Kirk, Andres Gimenez, Davis Schneider and Bichette have “bounce-back” seasons in-line with their spring training offence.

 Daulton Varsho is healthy to start the season at least as a DH and at worst only needs a couple of weeks to return to centre field, and hits like he has in this spring.

 Myles Straw makes the team as the fourth outfielder due to his superior defence and speed (taking over for Anthony Santander when they have a late lead)

 The following players are on the injury list to start the season:

Major League Roster: Alek Manoah, Ryan Burr, Antonio Bastardo and Swanson.

Notable Minor Leaguers: Adam Kloffenstein, Ricky Tiedemann, Brandon Barriera, Landen Maroudis, Adam Macko (Stoney Plain, Alta.), Chad Dallas and Oliver Drake (all pitchers)

 They are successful in putting the following players through waivers to Buffalo: pitchers Zach Pop (Brampton, Ont.) and Eric Lauer, and are unsuccessful at waiving Tommy Nance

 The starting rotation stays healthy and they generally look for five innings out of Scherzer and Bassitt, using Yariel Rodriguez and Yarbrough for multiple innings out of the bullpen

 Bowden Francis pitches like late 2024 and not the spring of 2025.

Batting Order

Will Vlad Guerrero be here for throughout the 2025 season?

Versus Righties Vs. Lefties

HRs RBIs OPS WAR

Bichette SS R 20 80 .800 4.0 Bichette SS R

Gimenez 2b L 15 70 .850 5.0 Guerrero 1B R

Guerrero 1 R B35 110 .920 6.0 Santander DH R

Santander LF L 40 120 .840 4.0 Roden RF L

Varsho CF L 20 80 .800 5.0 Kirk C R

Kirk C R 15 60 .750 4.0 Varsho CF L

Roden RF L 10 60 .800 3.0 Clement 3b R

Barger 3b L 10 50 .700 2.0 Schneider LF R

Wagner DH L 5 40 .750 2.0 Gimenez 2b L

Bench

Clement IF R 10 50 .720 1.5

Schneider OF/If R 10 40 .700 1.0

Heinemann C S 0 20 .600 0.5

Straw OF R 0 20 .600 0.5

Barger IF/OF L

Wagner IF L

Heinemann C S

Pitching Rotation ERA Innings WAR Bullpen ERA

Gausmann R 3.70 190 3.0

Berrios R 4.20 190 2.0

Bassitt R 4.40 150 1.5

Scherzer R 3.90 120 2.0

Francis R 4.20 160 1.5

Bullpen

Hoffman R 3.00

Garcia R 3.50

Green R 4.00

Sandlin R 4.00

Rodriguez R 4.20

Tate R 4.00

Little L 3.90

Yarbrough L 4.40

Buffalo Bisons

Batting Order

Berroa CF S

Kasevich SSR

Martinez 3b R

Loperfido LF L

Robertson RF L

Jimenez 2b R

Palmagiani DH R

Nunez 1st

Clarke C

Rotation

Bloss R

Lucas L

Lauer L

Wallace R

Bash R

Bench

Sanchez C R

Stefanic 2b R

Turconi IF L

irotta IF R

Barry OF R

Classe OF S

Rivera IF R

Bullpen

Fisher

Burr

Jennings

Pop

Robertson

Pardinho

Juenger

Walker L

Fluharty L

Lovelady L

Negative Scenario

A number of the following “headwinds” make problems for the Jays:

 They keep Springer as their everyday right fielder and his OPS is around .600 with average defence

 Their relatively old starting rotation has 2+ injuries and they have to dip into Buffalo for Bloss and Lauer in addition to spot starts from Rodriguez and Yarbrough (ouch).

 Guerrero’s contract status continues unresolved and is a distraction – same with Bichette.

 They sustain injuries to the better bullpen pitchers (Hoffman, Garcia and/or Green).

Alejandro Kirk starts his first season as the No. 1 catcher.

 Kirk’s body breaks down with injuries as they push him to make 120 starts and there is no great No. 2 catcher

If they are “out of it” at the trade deadline (five or more games below .500) I hope they go all-in on a rebuild and trade the following players for maximum prospect returns:

 Vladdy and Bo if they can’t sign them before the trade deadline to reasonable contracts

 All other expiring contracts (Scherzer, Green, Swanson, Little and Yarbrough)

 Any other players where they get a good return (ex. Gausmann)

They have a decent list of top-end young starting pitchers lined up for 2026 to complement Berrios, Manoah and Francis including:

 Tiedemann

 Bloss

 Maroudis

 Yesavage

 Rojas (lefty)

 Macko (lefty)

 Barriera (lefty)

And some decent emerging bullpen/starting arms in Fluharty, Jennings, Bastardo, Pardinho, Estrada and Brock

Plus they would have the following position players to build around

 Kirk C

 Gimenez SS-2b

 Clement 3b

 Santander LF/DH

 Roden RF

 Varsho CF

With the following position players knocking on the door in 2026

 Loperfido, Berroa, Clase, and Brown in the outfield

 Jimenez, Martinez, Kasevich, Nimmala and McAdoo in the infield

And only about $100-$120M in committed payroll

My best guess at the 2026 roster, with estimated salary impact, would look like this:

Rotation:

Berrios (19)

Manoah (4)

Francis (1.5)

Bloss (1.0)

Tiedemann (1.0)

With the following depth starting prospects at Buffalo: Yesavage, Rojas (L), Macko (L), Barriera (L) and Maroudis

Bullpen Core

Former No. 1 pick Jeff Hoffman returns to the Jays as their closer.

Hoffman (13)

Garcia (7.5)

Sandlin (2)

Bastardo (1)

Estrada (1)

Position Players

Catchers: Kirk (5) and Free Agent/July Trade

1B: Free Agent/July Trade

2B: Wagner (1)

SS: Gimenez (16)

3B: Clement (2)

LF: Loperfido (1)

CF: Varsho (8)

RF: Roden (1)

DH: Santander (16)

Bench: Jimenez (1), Barger (1), Martinez (1)

This would mean they would have about $105M in 2026 committed payroll with the following priorities to add if they don’t get any major-league ready prospects in the July 2026 trades:

 A left field stud (up to $30M): available 2026: Free agents include Kyle Tucker, Kyle Schwarber and Tyler O’Neill

 A power-hitting 1st baseman (up to $25M): Free Agents include Pete Alonso (his option), Josh Naylor and Ty France

 A top-end catcher to complement Kirk (up to $10M): Free Agents include JT Realmuto, Victor Caratini and Austin Hedges

 Three top-end bullpen arms (total of $30M): AJ Minter (his option), Micheal King and Ryan Helsley

Which gives them between $40M in payroll room (assuming the 2026 luxury tax threshold stays at the 2025 level of $240M) to add starting pitchers if they have any major injuries in 2025 to the projected starting rotation for 2026.

Lower-Level Prospects I’m Most Excited About

Having seen a lot of games this spring up close this year, including the Prospect showcase game this weekend vs. Minnesota, here are the players below AAA for 2025 that I’m most excited about:

SS Arjun Nimmala, a former No. 1 pick as well.

Arjun Nimmala

 He has filled out his lanky frame, has a shorter/quicker swing and looks very smooth at shortstop

Trey Yesavage

 He has a jerky over-the-top delivery but touched 97 and has an big-league quality slider

Kendry Rojas

 Very relaxed and lively 97 mph from the left side and decent off-speed pitches

That’s it from Florida.