October 2, 2020

By Robert Seguin

Canadian Baseball Network

Fellow Canadian MLB fans:

I hope you enjoyed that truncated 2020 Blue Jays baseball season as much as we did in my “bubble” household. My wife, Christine and I (and our 2 cats) can’t wait until MLB 2021 comes around, whatever that might look like.

The “baby” Jays (second youngest line up in the MLB; Detroit just slightly younger) who surprised many of the pundits by claiming the final, expanded playoff spot in the A.L. with a very respectable 32-28 record, were undone in the short best-of-three playoff series by an “ace” having his first bad day in the past 10 starts. The Blue Jays are packing up as we speak and heading home to their families, many of whom they haven’t seen in months. I’m sure they’ll be happy to be home, but chomping at the bit to get back on the field in pursuit of a World Series championship.

Since I now have plenty of time on my hands, and Christine knows how dangerous that can be, especially if I start thinking about DIY projects where I could cut or electrocute myself (and/or her and the cats), I thought I’d have some fun capturing our reflections on this season, and thoughts about 2021 and sharing them with you.

2020

Pitching:

· The high-end (A-AAA) pitching depth and quality prospects (Romano, Pearson, Borucki, Hatch, Zeuch, Kay, Merryweather, Murphy, Waguespack) sure provided the basis for a very strong bullpen, complimented by “found money” in free agents/waiver claims Dolis (Japan), Bass (Seattle) and Cole (Cleveland). Despite losing closer No. 1 (Giles) and No. 2 (Romano, Markham, Ont.), and the flop that was Shun Yamaguchi, the bullpen was probably the biggest, positive surprise of the short season.

· Starting pitching was “hit and not enough miss”, but at least with Ryu we were able to enjoy having a true ace for most of 2020 (here’s hoping his flop vs. Tampa was just a negative outlier and not an injury or early sign of declining performance). Walker and Ray were nice rental pickups to make up for injuries to Shoemaker and Thornton, and the disappointing performances of Anderson, and especially Roark.

Offence:

· Overall, offence was a bright spot primarily with the Bautista-like emergence of Teoscar Hernandez, and the continued strong contributions from Gurriel, Grichuk, Bichette and Biggio, and the late season uptick of Guerrero Jr. (Montreal, Que.). And you have to love the small sample of surprising production from Tellez and new fan-favourite, Alejandro Kirk

· The negative surprises certainly start with young catchers McGuire and Jansen, but also the mediocre contributions from Shaw and late-season pick up Villar

Defence

· The outfield defence is just OK, but perhaps better than expected, with Gurriel and Hernandez elevating their game and cutting down on miscues. With Jonathan Davis pushing aside Alford, McKinney and Fisher, his plus-defence and speed helped the Blue Jays somewhat mitigate this issue coming out of “summer camp”

· Infield defence is below average, but gradually got better during the season as Biggio showed us his versatility by playing a steady, if unspectacular third and second base, Bo was solid at short (except for game 2 versus Tampa, unfortunately) and although Guerrero is a “work in progress” at first base, particularly on foul balls and plays to his right, he’s only 21 and seems committed to working hard at improving his conditioning and footwork, after reporting out of shape for summer camp. Hopefully he’ll learn from his mistakes and be positively affected by the strong peer leadership from Biggio (Jonathan Toews protégé?) and Bichette.

· Catcher defence was just OK, but they are young and working hard.

Coaching/Management

· I thought Charlie Montoyo got caught off-guard on adapting to the new, bullpen-dominant reality of 2020 baseball a couple of times in the early part of the season. Overall, though, I believe he showed the ability to combine his long, successful track record of manager experience in Tampa’s Joe Maddon lineage, with his appreciation for advanced analytics and working well with his colleagues. It may drive “older school” fans like me a bit crazy, but I have to admit that more often than not, his in-game and line-up decisions optimized setting up his players and team to succeed, despite my throwing a few things (not cats) at the screen during the season (Fisher would have a few more bruises on his body if my projectiles were at the Rogers Centre, and if I could hit the broadside of a barn with this old arm).

· I liked most of what the GM did to bolster the lineup at the trade deadline, without giving up much more than two legitimate prospects in Griffin Conine (another son of former major leaguer) and last year’s second round pick, Kendall Williams. I also liked how they gave players like Tellez, McGuire, Fisher, Jansen, Alford and Davis a reasonable chance to play their way into or out of the everyday line-up. And of course, they seemed to have another good draft day, getting some quality arms to compliment the gift of Austin Martin from the baseball gods.

2021

· The projected 26-man opening-day line-up, and minor-league depth is listed below:

Pitchers (14)

Starters: Ryu, Pearson, Merryweather, Anderson and one TBA veteran (not named Yamaguchi or Roark)

Bullpen: Stripling (R long man), Borucki (L), Romano (R – closer), Reid-Foley (R), Perez (R), Cole (R) and Dolis (R) and a two TBA veterans (hopefully a power lefty and a power righty)

Minor-league top prospects: Murphy, Murray, Kay, Hatch, Luciano, Diaz, Zeuch, Woods-Richardson, Manoah, Kloffenstein, Rees, Winckowski, Pardihno (Prospect pool rating: “A”)

Outfielders (4)

· Gurriel, Grichuk, Hernandez and Davis

Top Prospects: Orimoloye (Orleans, Ont.), Young, Palacios, Wall, Brown, Robertson (Prospect pool rating “D”)

Infielders/DH (6):· Guerrero, Biggio, Bichette, Espinal, Tellez and a great 3B or 2B TBA

Top Prospects: Groshans, Martin, Smith, Lopez, Jiminez, Hiraldo, Martinez (Prospect pool rating “C”)

Catchers (2): Jansen, Kirk

Top Prospects: Adams, McGuire, Moreno (Prospect pool rating “B”)

2020 Ideal off-season:

“Releases”: Shaw, Roark, Fisher, Yamaguchi

·Signings: Bauer (SP), D.J. LeMahieu (3B), Jackie Bradley Jr. (CF), Hendriks (RP)

And before you say, “Rob, what are you smoking?”, the Jays have budget room in 2021, with only an estimated $80M in commitments (including paying Shaw, Roark and Yamaguchi to go away, and $4M to Tulo).

So why not pony up $25M for one year of Bauer (that’s what he wants, apparently), $60M for three years of LeMahieu, $60M for four years of Bradley, and $20M for two years of Hendriks. That would take their overall 2021 payroll to a reasonable $150M and make them a serious contender for the next few years, before their pitching prospects arrive, and before they have to pony up long term deals for Bichette, Biggio, Guerrero and Hernandez.

Enjoy the offseason and stay safe and well.