Addison Barger stopped by to say hello to scribe Rob Sequin after a game at TD Stadium in Dunedin.

March 21, 2022

By Rob Seguin

Canadian Baseball Network

DUNEDIN, Fla. - It’s great to be back for some Toronto Blue Jays spring training games. The town has changed a fair bit, mostly for the better, since we were abruptly interrupted by COVID-19 in March of 2020, with a younger and more diverse visitor base than in previous years.

The Jays brain-trust (Mark Shapiro and Ross Atkins) appears to have pushed most of their budget and much of their prospect capital to the centre of the table to assemble this version of our beloved Jays. I know I’m not alone in being mildly and pleasantly surprised that they are finally willing to spend in the top tier of big-league franchises, like they should. The salary outlay expected for 2023 is right at or slightly above the $233M luxury tax threshold for the first time in Jays history, putting them up there with the drunken-sailors that are the New York Mets, and just behind the New York Yankees, San Diego Padres, Philadelphia Phillies and Los Angeles Dodgers.

Personally, I really liked their off-season moves, which promised better outfield defence, a deeper bullpen, more competitiveness (less silliness) and balanced right-left batting order. And it appears the stolen base will be making a comeback and this team has a lot of rabbits now. And nothing I’ve seen here through a dozen or so spring games has made me less optimistic about these improvements.

In late 2016, I remember hearing Alex Anthopoulos on the radio being interviewed by Bob McCown and my old Ottawa coach Bob Elliott a couple of days after announcing he was leaving the Jays. They asked Alex what he had learned during his tenure as Jays GM. He spoke about two aspects he remembers Pat Gillick sharing with him when he started: first, all things being equal, character matters, a lot. Second, it’s not your job as GM to get good value players; it’s your job to win and to win in the AL East, you need at least three all-stars on your roster.

(Case in point, the 1993 team had seven – Paul Molitor, Joe Carter, Devon White, Robbie Alomar, John Olerud, Duane Ward and Pat Hentgen).

And from what I can see, this version of the Jays has between two and 11 all-stars on the 26-man roster (see the asterisked (*) players listed below who are possible summer-classic candidates in my view).

My breakdown on the Blue Jays forecasted 26-man opening day roster, (with Ryu and Green starting the season on the Injury List):

AL East Predictions:

Team Wins Losses

Toronto 95-67

New York 92-70

Tampa 89-73

Baltimore 85-77

Boston 65- 97

Where I disagree with most prognosticators is I think the Yankees injury risk is higher than other younger AL East competitors, which dampens their win forecast in my opinion.

Jays Prospect Report

I was able to visit the Jays impressively updated player development complex before the spring training games began (it appears they clamp down on public access after games begin) and was able to see some of the young arms in preparation for 2023. The Jays also provided a lot of playing time for their upper-echelon prospects during spring games and Christine was patient with me as I stayed to the end of most games (it helped that the average game time is 35 minutes shorter with the new pace of play rules), and my friend Vic from the stadium usher group provided me with close-up seat access.

Of note, looking back on the strategy of Shapiro and Atkins to trade veterans from 2016 to 2019 for a “quantity” of prospects, especially pitchers, it seems to have borne little fruit. The improved roster is mostly the result of decent, high-end draft picks/development (Guerrero, Bichette, Jansen, Biggio, Kirk, Romano, Mayza) and spending Rogers’ money to acquire good players (which I think is long overdue) to add to Ryu, Springer, Kiermaier, Gausman, Bassitt, Green and Belt (and less so Kikuchi). They also moved Teoscar Hernandez, Lourdes Gurriel and a fair amount of prospect capital to get Berrios, Swanson, Chapman and Varsho.

As for current prospects, I’m most excited about Ricky Tiedemann, 20, who hit 99.6 mph with a two-seamer which broke away from right-handed hitting all-star Javier Baez to strike him out on four pitches – wicked. Great secondary stuff, too. If they can keep him healthy, he’s a legit ace-of-the-staff candidate in my books, and no more than a year away.

Addison Barger is the organization closest-to-majors position player. He has an incredible arm and power left-handed bat, and with decent range and speed he could be an outfield option if the Jays don’t re-sign Kiermaier, but most likely will take Chapman’s spot at third-base in 2024. And he’s a great kid who stopped for 30 minutes after a game to sign plenty of autographs and take photos will pathetic old guy like me.

Here’s my best guess at the Buffalo (AAA) and New Hampshire (AA) rosters with higher-end prospects highlighted:

Rob Seguin (Port Hope, Ont.) is a former pitcher with the Ottawa-Nepean Canadians and this is his 15th spring in Dunedin.