November 22, 2024

By Tyson Shushkewich

Canadian Baseball Network

The last - and only - time a Canadian took home a Major League Baseball Rookie of the Year award was when Jason Bay earned the National League honour after an impressive campaign with the 2004 Pittsburgh Pirates.

Bay (Trail, BC) posted a .907 OPS with 26 home runs in 120 games.

This year, another Canuck found himself in the mix for the award but fell shy of being named a finalist. Cade Smith (Abbotsford, BC) put forward an impressive rookie campaign with the Cleveland Guardians after a dominant spring forced the coaching staff to keep him for the Opening Day roster. From there, Smith took the ball and didn’t look back, establishing himself as not only a go-to arm for manager Stephen Vogt but as one of the top bullpen arms in the league.

Smith was always going to be in a tough spot to take home the honour given the emergence of Colton Cowser of the Baltimore Orioles and Luis Gil of the New York Yankees in the American League East this season.

Yet an argument could be made that finalist territory was within reach, ahead of the last nominee in catcher Austin Wells of the Yankees.

Let’s break down the why:

For starters (pun intended), Smith was not only one of the best arms out of the Guardians’ relief corps but, statistically, one of the best in the majors. The right-hander finished with a 2.7 fWAR, which led all relievers – ahead of the likes of Mason Miller, Ryan Helsley, Jeff Hoffman, and teammate Emmanuel Clase, who was named a finalist for the AL Cy Young Award.

Smith also topped all relievers in FIP, posting a dominant 1.40 mark that was 54 points higher than Griffin Jax, who slotted in behind the Canuck. In other categories, Smith’s 1.91 ERA was 10th on the leader board among relievers, and he finished 13th with his 12.31 K/9 mark.

His 0.12 HR/9 mark was in the top three and he also ranked in the 98th percentile in terms of pitching value (+29) – mostly due to his 100th percentile fastball run value, which held opponents to a .174 average and a .253 SLG.

The Chilliwack minor ball grad made 74 appearances this year out of the Guardians’ bullpen (11th most in the AL) and was frequently used in high-pressure situations between the sixth to eighth innings, as evident by his 26 holds.

Since the introduction of the Rookie of the Year award in 1947, 12 bona fide relievers have won – with the latest being Brewers right-hander Devin Williams in 2020. Across a full season, Craig Kimbrel holds the latest win in 2011.

Smith finished fifth in the AL top rookie standings, thanks to one first-place vote, one second-place vote, and four third-place votes for a total of 12 points – 94 points behind Gil. It was a two-horse race between the Gil and Cowser. Wells settled into third but barely ahead of Mason Miller (fourth, 16 points) and Smith, who was five points behind.

To present more evidence to support Smith’s Rookie of the Year candidacy, the 25-year-old Canuck finished ahead of Miller in numerous statistical categories that should rank highly, including fWAR (how good Smith was above replacement level players) and FIP (where stats are tabulated based on the outcomes pitchers can control like walks and home runs).

Where did Miller get the best of Smith?

Saves (28-1) and strikeouts (104-103 – one measly punch out) – which are arguably more exciting stats compared to fWAR or FIP. Throwing 100 MPH+ like Miller does has the effect of being more exciting to those watching, but from a pure stats basis, Smith edges out the A’s hurler in more categories. Wells finished with a 3.4 fWAR over 115 games and 414 plate appearances but only slightly ahead of Smith, who led all Major League relievers in the same category.

I repeat - not a single arm out of any bullpen across the league was statistically helping their team more than what Smith did with the Guardians, regardless of the situation.

This also isn’t including his postseason run with the Guardians, where he posted a 3.60 ERA across nine outings between the ALDS and ALCS against the Tigers and Yankees, respectively. He became the first Cleveland pitcher to appear in every single game of a Division Series and then set a record with 12 strikeouts, the most by a reliever in a division series across both leagues.

The biggest knock for his Rookie of the Year consideration will be his lack of saves, which is mostly because the Guardians employed Clase, who was not going to get knocked off the pedestal by a rookie no matter how impressive he was this year. Saves and strikeouts impress the masses and while Smith had his fair share of whiffs, he had just one save.

Looking back on the group of relievers who took home the rookie award over the years, most share that trait of being used late in the game.

Credit to Evan Woodbery, who covers the Detroit Tigers for MLive Media Group, as he was the one who cast the ballot for Smith to win the rookie award. As I was writing this, the AL Cy Young award winner was announced and Tigers hurler Tarik Skubal rightfully took home the honour.

Looking further down the page, one familiar name also stood out – a lone Canadian earning a fifth-place vote -- Smith -- tying for ninth place with former Blue Jays starter Yusei Kikuchi.

I will die on the hill that Smith deserved more credit for his impressive rookie season but for finishing with votes in multiple award ballots and leading the entire league in multiple categories of major significance, it was a season to remember for Smith, even if he doesn’t have the hardware to back it up.