Casaletto: The Blue Jays are banking on a lot of ground balls in 2019

The Toronto Blue Jays have acquired left-hander Clayton Richard from the San Diego Padres.

By Lucas Casaletto

Canadian Baseball Network

The Toronto Blue Jays made its second pitching upgrade in less than a week with the acquisition of southpaw Clayton Richard, formerly of the San Diego Padres, for Canadian outfield prospect Connor Panas (Toronto, Ont.).

By no means a household name, Richard hasn’t attracted much attention the last few years in San Diego with the club in its perpetual rebuild, but he’s also flown under the radar because of his pitching profile.

Richard turned 35 a few months ago and is coming off a down season in which he performed to a 5.33 ERA and 4.68 FIP in 27 starts. His walks-per-nine-innings also rose from 2.7 in 2017 to 3.4, and his strikeouts-per-nine dropped, if however minimally, from 6.9 to 6.1, respectively. What jumps off the page in Richard’s case is his durability, and the innings he’s managed to log since undergoing thoracic outlet syndrome surgery in 2014.

He was brought along slowly in 2015, bouncing around in the minors until latching on with the Chicago Cubs as a long reliever. His innings have gradually increased from 67 ⅔ to 197 ⅓ and 158 ⅔ this past year. There are some concerns with his outlook as Richard is hit hard and often (a combined 10.1 H/9 in each of the past two years), and he’s had harrowingly different results pitching away from the pitcher-friendly confines of Petco Park.

That is why any high upside with Richard is going to come from his elite ability at generating ground balls. He does this often.

Ground Ball Rate

(The top-10 is qualified pitchers with a minimum of 350 innings)

There appears to be a trend here. Noted ground ball guru Marcus Stroman leads the league in that regard since 2015. Richard is two spots below him in third, followed by Aaron Sanchez, ranked ninth. The front office seems to be keen on keeping the ball down at any cost.

Now, this doesn’t mean that the Blue Jays’ starting rotation is going to thrive by simply rostering a group of ground-ball generators. As evidenced by this same table, former Blue Jays starter Jaime Garcia was signed last year as a low-risk, high-reward lefty, and everyone knows how that turned out. There’s also a lot riding on the health of Stroman and Sanchez, with no guarantee that one, or both can pitch full seasons and return to form. If the two pitchers stay on the field, the Blue Jays will have three of the league’s best at getting the ball to the ground. We will soon find out how good of a fielder Vlad Guerrero Jr. really is.

Similar to right-hander Matt Shoemaker and his brilliant splitter, Richard’s repertoire - specifically his sinker and the use of his slider in 2018 - is one reason for optimism and worth a deeper dive into how this could play out.

Groundballs per Balls in Play

Pitch Usage

Horizontal Movement

Richard has relied on his sinker the most of his other offerings by a wide margin. It’s his money pitch for ground balls and happens to carry with it some tremendously deceiving movement. Since his surgery, Richard has done an admirable job transforming himself into an off-speed, high spin-rate type of pitcher. What he lacks in velocity he makes up for in horizontal movement and a proven knack to throw strikes, which is great for walk totals, but easily explains his proneness to giving up the long ball. Another intriguing and recent development is Richard’s implementation and use of a slider, which he threw more of last season.

Raw Whiff Counts

Pitch Outcomes

With most of Richard’s repertoire generating ground balls due to its natural sink, his slider appears to have the makings of a strikeout pitch. Last year, 52 of Richard’s 108 strikeouts came from the slider, which is impressive, considering these results arrived after he began experimenting with it some more. Whether the lefty keeps this usage rate up remains to be seen, but a sinker-slider mix should bode well at the Rogers Centre, and even if the long ball continues to plague Richard, there’s enough here to be at least moderately excited about his chances of sticking in the rotation. At worst, he doesn’t pan out, and the Blue Jays could try Richard as a long reliever or lefty specialist (it should be noted that he’s limited left-handers to a .250/.301/.324 line for his career).

With Richard now in the mix, the Blue Jays’ starting rotation is finally starting to take shape. The veteran will join Shoemaker, Stroman, and Sanchez, which is a decent top-four for a rebuilding team. Fellow southpaw Ryan Borucki, who was solid in his rookie year, is expected to battle with Sam Gaviglio and Trent Thornton for the final spot in the rotation. That is, of course, barring another trade or signing.

While Garcia didn’t work out for the Blue Jays last season, the front office is hoping Richard will be different. He’s far from a flashy addition and doesn’t carry as much upside as Shoemaker, but he’s a nice add in his own right.

Statistics courtesy of: Baseball Reference, FanGraphs, Brooks Baseball