March 19, 2022

By Matt Betts

Canadian Baseball Network

The expectations for the Toronto Blue Jays may prove to be higher than the CN Tower that sits next to Rogers Centre.

With the additions of RHP Kevin Gausman, 3B Matt Chapman, LHP Yusei Kikucki, and the continual emergence of a young core, those expectations have merit.

But the game isn’t played on paper and the Commissioner’s Trophy isn’t handed out in March.

So let’s take a look at three reasons why the Blue Jays will win the American League East.

And three reasons why they won’t.

Three reasons they WILL win the AL East

The value of heartbreak

Vladimir Guerrero Jr. (Montreal, Que.) said he waited three days after the 2021 season ended before heading back to the Dominican Republic. He wanted to look back on the season, which saw the Blue Jays eliminated on the final day, and contemplate how things could’ve been different.

Six months of effort and 91 wins wasn’t enough to secure a Wild Card berth. That can play on the psyche of even the most mentally tough.

Or, it can be used as motivation to push a team over the edge. There’s something to be said about the value that comes with defeat. Baseball is a game of failure as they say, and those who learn to deal with, and overcome it, tend to find the greatest success.

With a hungry young core and added veterans, the Blue Jays are hoping for the latter.

The Pete Walker Effect

The impact Pete Walker has had on Blue Jays pitchers since taking over the staff a decade ago is invaluable.

Ask last year’s Cy Young Award winner Robbie Ray. Ray came to Toronto via a trade with the Arizona Diamondbacks during the 2020 season and finished with a combined 6.62 ERA. A major issue was how erratic he was in walking 45 over 51 2/3 innings. Seeing progress by the end of 2020, the Jays took a flyer on Ray for the 2021 season, inking him to a one-year, $8-million deal. A full season under Walker helped Ray finish 13-7 with a 2.84 ERA over 193 1/3 innings. He also walked just 52. That’s only seven more than 2020 in over three times the innings pitched. He would go on to land a five-year, $115-million deal with the Seattle Mariners.

And don’t forget about Steven Matz. The left-hander was coming off a 2020 that saw his ERA skyrocket to 9.68 before landing with the Blue Jays in the offseason. Fast forward to the end of 2021 and Matz finished with a 14-7 record and a 3.82 ERA. That helped him land a four-year, $44 million deal with the Cardinals.

So where am I going with this? Look no further than the newest Blue Jays hurler Yusei Kikucki. The stuff is there, with a fastball that he can run up to 95 mph and a splitter many believe should be used more. Despite the stuff that clearly will play at the big league level, Kikuchi comes to Toronto with a 15-24 record and a 4.97 ERA after three seasons in Seattle. Can Pete Walker work his magic and unlock the Kikuchi who went 73-46 with a 2.77 ERA in eight seasons in Nippon Pro Ball? It could be the key to the Blue Jays success in an incredibly deep division.

The commitment

The Blue Jays front office continually said they would spend the money necessary to compete when the time was right. That time is now, and they have.

Since 2019, they’ve added the likes of LHP Hyun-jin Ryu, OF George Springer, RHP Jose Berrios, RHP Kevin Gausman, LHP Yusei Kikuchi, and 3B Matt Chapman. They are moves designed at not only being in the playoff picture, but competing for a World Series.

There’s no reason to believe Ross Atkins, Mark Shapiro and Edward Rogers make another move throughout the season or at the deadline if need be.

Three reasons they WON’T win the AL East

Division depth

This one’s obvious, and frankly could’ve made up all three reasons why. The Tampa Bay Rays, Boston Red Sox and New York Yankees all pose a significant threat to the Blue Jays division and playoff hopes.

No division poses a four-headed monster like the AL East. Not only are these four teams talented, they’re willing to spend. The Yankees aren’t shy about opening the pocket book, neither are the Red Sox, and even the low-budget Rays were reported to be one of the last teams standing in the Freddie Freeman sweepstakes.

They’ll play the Rays, Red Sox, and Yankees 19 times apiece. So that’s 57 of 162 against those teams. It’s nothing new to the Blue Jays, but yikes. They’re schedule sees them play those three teams 15 times in the final three weeks of the season, including a five-game series against the Rays at Rogers Centre from September 12 to September 15.

The Blue Jays could realistically finish fourth in their division. But fourth may just be good enough to lock down a Wild Card spot in the new 12-team playoff format.

The bullpen

The bullpen ranked 16th in ERA (4.08), 19th in home runs allowed (82), 21st in strikeouts (595) and 23rd in saves (34) in 2021. On the flip side, they also ranked fifth best in hits allowed (491) and eighth from the top in walks allowed (235).

RHP Jordan Romano (Markham, Ont.) staked claim to the closer’s role in 2021 by locking down 23 saves, but he’s still inexperienced in the role. LHP Tim Mayza and RHP Adam Cimber showed an ability to get big outs. They also added RHP Yimi Garcia this offseason, but his ERA ballooned from 3.47 in Miami to 5.48 in Houston after being moved midseason.

As it stands now they’ll need strong seasons, and health, from Julian Merryweather, Trevor Richards, David Phelps, Nate Pearson, Ross Stripling and Thomas Hatch.

With a truncated Spring Training and quality pitching depth surely to come at a premium, will the Blue Jays bullpen hold up?

It’s baseball

Please refer back to the opening when I mentioned “the games aren’t played on paper” and “the trophy isn’t handed out in March”.

And as the title of this one indicates, it’s baseball. Weird, wacky things take place over the course of 162 games. Injuries occur and roster depth is tested. Some players overachieve, and some underachieve. Look no further than 2021. Put your hand up if you had the Giants winning 107 games and the NL West? Exactly.

Fans hate this one, but sometimes the results just don’t go as planned.