Whicker: An in-depth look at free agent Cody Bellinger, a solution for the Jays?
Los Angeles Dodgers free agent CF Cody Bellinger is on the Blue Jays radar so George Springer can move to right field.
November 25, 2022
By Mark Whicker
Canadian Baseball Network
If you are a betting man, there are reasons to take on Cody Bellinger.
If you are a betting franchise, the question is not as clear.
Agent Scott Boras has made it relatively easy in the short term. He says Bellinger only wants a one-year contract, the better to reattach the pieces of a career that once had a jersey retirement written all over it.
At that point Bellinger either continues to wallow, or he springs back into the form he displayed with the Dodgers in 2017 and 2019. If that were to happen, Bellinger would become a premium free agent for 2024, at the age of 28.
To believe that Bellinger can be what he was, you must take his injuries seriously. They began when Bellinger hit a pivotal home run in the 2020 World Series and exchanged a violent shoulder smash with Enrique Hernandez in front of the Dodger dugout.
Bellinger dislocated his shoulder that night, and the aftereffects followed him throughout the next season. He also broke a rib and suffered a hairline fracture in his leg, which he continued to play.
To believe that Bellinger can’t be what he was, you must cite the miserable 2020 season he was having before he was waylaid by Hernandez. In that short season he hit .239 with a .789 OPS. The previous year he hit .305 with 47 home runs and 115 RBIs, led the National League in total bases and had an OPS of 1.035. That was his MVP season, at age 23.
You also have to believe that Bellinger is capable of making the adjustments that have largely silenced the launch-angle craze of the late 2010s. Nowadays, the pitchers throw high 90s stuff at the top of the strike zone, where the hitters who lift-and-separate are largely helpless.
Bellinger’s ability to figure out such things, and put an end to bad weeks before they become bad months, has been suspect. Last year, when things got so dark that he was routinely batting eighth in the order, Bellinger hit .190 in June, .200 in July and .192 in August.
It was even worse in 2021, when Bellinger hit .158 in the second half and had only 13 hits that weren’t home runs. Yet you scroll to the postseason and you realize why you can’t look away.
Bellinger torched the Braves in that National League Championship Series, with a game-tying home run in Game 3, when Atlanta led the series 2-0, and he batted .412. Before that, he had the big hit in a Game 2 of the NL Division Series win at San Francisco.
So, Bellinger has had a couple of careers so far and he hasn’t hit 30 yet. Dodger fans still remember the exhilaration of 2017, the Rookie of the Year season, when Bellinger went on a nine-game, nine-homer spree in June. On the 20th, he ripped a home run off the Mets’ Robert Gsellman, and play-by-play man Joe Davis exclaimed, “Cody Bellinger, you are ridiculous!”
That became a watchword for his 39-homer, 97-RBI debut. Funny, how catchphrases can turn around. Although none of the Dodgers’ carpool of batting coaches have found a way to turn around Bellinger, it’s not hard to see him returning. There might be other, more consequential changes.
Shortstop Trea Turner is a free agent, after he produced 262 hits in 212 games in his season-and-a-half as a Dodger. There are other shortstops in the market, like Boston’s Xander Bogaerts, but Turner was part of a lethal upper third of the lineup card, behind Mookie Betts and Freddie Freeman.
If Turner leaves and the Dodgers don’t sign another shortstop, they will likely move Gavin Lux there, to his natural position, and maybe live with Max Muncy and Chris Taylor at second. They also can’t afford to head into 2023 with an up-for-grabs closer situation, although the likely solution, Evan Phillips, is right there on the roster.
Walker Buehler will be unavailable for most of the season, and it’s questionable that the Dodgers will count on a kid like Bobby Miller or Ryan Pepiot in that spot. There are muscular free agents out there, like Justin Verlander, Jacob deGrom and Carlos Rodon, but club president Andrew Friedman sounds inclined to get back under the luxury tax threshold in 2023.
Beyond all that, the Dodgers cut loose Justin Turner, who only played 128 games last year but still drove in 81 runs. Muncy or Taylor can handle third base, but it might be more difficult to replace Turner as the counselor of the clubhouse.
All of this gives San Diego hope of actually competing for an NL West championship this season, although the Padres finished 22 games up the track this season. Bellinger’s departure accelerates a transition that inevitably happens to successful clubs.
Corey Seager, Kenley Jansen, Kenta Maeda, Hyun-jin Ryu, Joc Pederson, AJ Pollock and Hernandez, were all on the 2019 World Series runner-up team.
What’s worth remembering is that Bellinger played 144 games for the Dodgers last year while he struck out 150 times and hit .210. That’s because his ability to play centre field and his base running remain top notch.
If you’re a betting franchise, do you take a chance? At least you won’t have to double down.