Whicker: Why not the Blue Jays in the WS? Why not the Guardians, Rays or M's?
October 7, 2022
By Mark Whicker
Canadian Baseball Network
The baseball playoffs are not irrational. The people who try to predict them are.
They had departed the rails long before 2019, but that year is a good reference point. The Washington Nationals certifiably possessed the worst bullpen in the National League, until the playoffs arrived and they suddenly had a better bullpen than the teams they had to beat, which were the Los Angeles Dodgers, St. Louis Cardinals and Houston Astros, and thus became world champions.
That’s why I’ve had the gnawing suspicion that the American League postseason is going to be a convention of mad squirrels. The National League seems top-heavy with impregnable clubs, but the American League has only Houston. The other five AL teams are fallible and dangerous, and it would not surprise me a bit if Toronto, Cleveland, Seattle or Tampa Bay won the AL and took a slingshot against one of the NL behemoths in the World Series.
Why Cleveland?
With their $68 million payroll, the Guardians are one of the most appealing teams in the game.
They strike out fewer times than anyone, they slap the ball around, they have the best closer in the game in Emanuel Clase, and they persevere. They have endured 12 doubleheaders this year. And if the MVP debate was limited to players who played in relevant games, Jose Ramirez would be a worthy runnerup to Aaron Judge. He had 129 RBIs, and no teammate had more than 79.
They also have two emerging players, pitcher Triston McKenzie and outfielder Oscar Gonzalez, who could use this postseason as a jumping-off point to greatness the way that Miguel Cabrera did in Florida in 2003. Plus they have a future double Hall of Famer in manager Terry Francona, who should be honoured by Cooperstown and the American Medical Association when he’s done. He estimates he’s had at least 45 medical procedures at the Cleveland Clinic, and the Guardians know how serious Francona’s staph infections and toe problems have been. They have borrowed his resolve.
Why not Cleveland?
Although the Guardians were 20 games over .500 after the All-Star break, they were only four games over .500 for the season when they weren’t playing Minnesota, Detroit, Kansas City and the White Sox.
Why Toronto?
The Blue Jays are 46-28 with John Schneider managing, and they make it tough for any pitcher to make a third trip through the order. This is a team that displays both youth and experience.
George Springer has an .895 OPS in postseason.
Kevin Gausman and Alek Manoah can match up well with most starters, and Jordan Romano (Markham, Ont.) has become a top reliever. It also helps that the Jays are playing all three Wild Card games at home, and not at Seattle, where the frenzy over finally making the playoffs could have been pivotal.
Why not?
The rotation falls off sharply below the top two, and the Blue Jays have the highest ERA of any AL playoff team. They also lead the league in grounding into double plays.
Why Seattle?
It took less than a season for Julio Rodriguez to implant his face on the Mariners’ franchise, and he’s ready to go after dealing with back problems. Catcher Cal Raleigh had the dramatic home run that clinched the Mariners’ first playoff spot since 2001. The Mariners made the fewest errors in the AL, they have the second-best bullpen WHIP in baseball and they have formidable starters in Luis Castillo and Robbie Ray and kids George Kirby and Logan Gilbert. The most dangerous teams in the playoffs are the ones with no bad memories and lots of belief, and that’s Seattle.
Why not Seattle?
The M’s offence is hit and miss, ranking 25th in baseball in runs. The return of Mitch Haniger mitigates part of that, but Seattle had only 77 wins that weren’t walkoffs That probably won’t happen against playoff closers.
Why Tampa Bay?
As everyone looks for the mirrors, the Rays barge into the playoffs again with a formula only they seem to understand. They’re 25th in home runs and 21st in runs, but their pitchers have fewer walks than anyone and they’re fourth overall in ERA. In postseason play Randy Arozarena has a .354 average and a 1.197 OPS, and even though Wander Franco is coming off injury, he can dominate a three-game series.
Jason Adam, who changed teams six times before landing in Tampa, is their latest hot reliever, and Shane McClanahan, the Game 1 starter, has an 0.926 WHIP.
Why not Tampa Bay?
This is actually the weakest Rays club since 2017, with only 86 wins, and they’re 35-46 on the road. Injuries explain a lot of that. The Rays are also five games under .500 against AL playoff squads.