Votto had second half like Brett, Walker, Williams

By: Neil Munro

Canadian Baseball Network

In the 2015 baseball season, Cincinnati’s (and Canada’s) Joey Votto so impressed the voters that he was ranked third in the balloting for the National league’s MVP award. Traditionally, baseball counts the games played after the All-Star break as the second half of the season, even though about 58% of the scheduled games take place before the mid-season classic is played.

In 2015, Votto’s batting line in the second half featured a .362 batting average, an On-base percentage of .535, a .617 slugging percentage, good for an OPS of 1.152 (OBP and SLG added together). This year, Votto posted even better batting figures for the second half. Here is a more extensive comparison of his post-All-Star break offensive statistics for the past two seasons:

Year	G	AB	R	H	TB	2B	3B	HR	RBI	BB	PA	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS
2015	73	235	53	85	145	18	0	14	38	86	325	.362	.535	.617	1.152
2016	72	262	53	107	175	19	2	15	55	47	314	.408	.490	.668	1.158

He becomes just the seventh major leaguer to maintain a .400 batting mark over the second half since 1933, the inaugural year of the All-Star game. The list of those accomplishing that feat follows:

Player	Year	Team	2nd Half B.A.	2nd Half At Bats
Joey Votto	2016	Reds	.408	262
Ichiro Suzuki	2004	Mariners	.429	333
Larry Walker	1998	Rockies	.402	209
George Brett	1980	Royals	.421	280
Ted Williams	1941	Red Sox	.406	219
Babe Phelps	1936	Dodgers	.416	219
Earl Averill	1936	Indians	.409	325

It is interesting to observe that two of those seven players are from Canada, since Larry Walker also turned the trick on his way to his 1998 batting crown. For comparison sake here is the accompanying list of the six players batting better than .400 in the first half of a season since 1933:

Player	Year	Team	1st Half B.A.	1st Half At Bats
Rod Carew	1983	Angels	.402	229
Stan Musial	1948	Cardinals	.403	298
Tommy Holmes	1945	Braves	.401	312
Ted Williams	1941	Red Sox	.405	237
Joe Medwick	1937	Cardinals	.404	260
Heinie Manush	1934	Senators	.403	320

For the sake of accuracy, the 1945 All-Star game was actually canceled during World War II (it had been scheduled for July 10th). Baseball historian Bill Dean, points out Joe DiMaggio was actually batting .435 at the break in 1939 but had only 154 at-bats at that point in the season as he was holding out for a salary increase for much of the spring.

The true significance and difficulty of Ted Williams maintaining his .400 clip for the whole season in 1941 is readily apparent from examining the two lists here. Bill wryly observes that Joey Votto might well have a few more MVP awards to his credit if only MLB would hold its annual All-Star game in April.

What makes Votto’s 2016 final statistics even more amazing, is the fact that he started off so poorly for the first two months of the season. On May 23rd Votto was batting just .203 with a .341 OBP and a slugging mark of .351. At that time his OPS was below .700, standing at diminutive .692. He trailed Daniel Murphy (the N.L. leader) in batting by 186 points, OBP by 71 points, in slugging by 254 points and in OPS by 335 points. From that point on, Votto began pummelling National League hurlers, chasing down the leaders in all of those percentage categories.

By season’s end, he ranked third in batting average at .326 (by then, DJ LeMahieu had nosed out Murphy for the batting crown, .348 to .347). He finished first in OBP at .434 to LeMahieu’s .416, sixth in slugging percentage (at .550) and second to Murphy in OPS (just barely) .9844 to .9851.

Votto had been steadily closing the gap on Murphy’s OPS lead for three months when the Washington second sacker was injured for the last two weeks of the season. Interestingly enough, the talk at the time centred on the batting title race between Murphy and Lemahieu. Murphy was a scant 1 point behind when the Rockies’ manager (Walt Weiss) benched the healthy LeMahieu for ten days to allow his player to capture the batting crown.

"It's a unique situation because Murphy's injured, he's not playing," Weiss said. "If he's playing, they could fight it out. I don't want DJ to lose a batting title that way [with Murphy not playing], so I'm going to pay attention to the math. My philosophy, whether you like it or not, is I'm going to take care of the guys who take care of our team. DJ's one of those guys that takes care of our team."

Murphy made a pinch hit appearance on the last day of the regular season but he flied out to right, keeping his average at .347. What was not noted at the time was the equally close battle for the N.L. lead in the OPS category. Murphy had been gradually dropping off while Votto had been closing the gap relentlessly. I firmly believe that Votto would have overtaken him if Murphy had been active during the last half of September.

The National league will be announcing its annual awards during the month of November after the conclusion of the World Series. It will be interesting to see where Votto finishes in the voting in two of those awards. If the pundits are correct, the N.L. will be the Cubs’ Kris Bryant, and Murphy will be the runner-up.

Third place should be up for grabs among Votto, the Rockies’ Nolan Arenado and four of five starting pitchers for the Cubs and Nationals. The competition to name the winner of the Silver Slugger award for first basemen (given annually to the batter at that position deemed to be the best offensive player in the National League) will be fascinating as well. Several N.L. first sackers posted impressive batting statistics in 2016. Here are the nominees:

First Basemen	Team	G	AB	R	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	BB	SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS
Votto, J	CIN	158	556	101	181	34	2	29	97	108	120	.326	.434	.550	.985
Freeman, F	ATL	158	589	102	178	43	6	34	91	89	171	.302	.400	.569	.968
Goldschmidt, P	ARI	158	579	106	172	33	3	24	95	110	150	.297	.411	.489	.899
Rizzo, A	CHC	155	583	94	170	43	4	32	109	74	108	.292	.385	.544	.928
Gonzalez, A	LAD	156	568	69	162	31	0	18	90	55	117	.285	.349	.435	.784
Belt, B	SF	156	542	77	149	41	8	17	82	104	148	.275	.394	.474	.868
Myers, W	SD	157	599	99	155	29	4	28	94	68	160	.259	.336	.461	.797
Carter, C	MIL	160	549	84	122	27	1	41	94	76	206	.222	.321	.499	.821

In my (strongly biased) opinion, Votto should finally take home his first Silver Slugger award. Freeman, Goldschmidt and Rizzo should be the other main contenders, but you are never sure which way votes of this type might turn out.

To borrow a phrase from Donald Trump (of all people) “I hear that” the Blue Jays were very close to making a deal with Cincinnati last year to bring the Toronto native back home. One glaring weakness in the Blue Jays’ lineup in their quest for winning the World Series, is their lack of a dominant left-handed batter in their starting line-up.

A second problem for the team was their failure to settle on a lead-off hitter who could get on base consistently to set the table for those right-handed sluggers like Donaldson, Encarnacion, Bautista, Tulowitzki, Martin and even Kevin Pillar to drive home. Cleveland deftly exploited these weaknesses in the A.L. Championship Series sending out a steady diet of right-handed pitchers against Toronto (the only exception being Ryan Merrit in game five of the series).

Adding the left-hand hitting Votto to Toronto’s regular lineup as the lead-off batter could go a long way to solve both of those problems. Votto gets on base more often than any active player in the major leagues. He has led the N.L. in on-base percentage five-time in the last seven years and led the senior circuit in times reaching base (via a hit, walk or hit by pitch) four times in that period.

His injury in 2012 which caused him to miss a third of the season prevented him from leading in that category a fifth time as well. Votto has accomplished this while playing half of his games in a ballpark that does not favour batters anywhere near the extent that the Sky Dome does.

Imagining a team with a solid line-up of right-handers with one prominent left-handed slugger reminds me of the fearsome Brooklyn Dodgers’ array of sluggers in the 1950’s. That batting line-up featured Jackie Robinson, Gil Hodges, Roy Campanella, Pee Wee Reese, and Carl Furillo all batting right-handed, leaving Duke Snider as the only slugger hitting from the left side. Many observers claimed that Snider’s Hall-of-Fame slugging credentials were due to the fact that he faced a steady stream of right-handed pitchers while playing in a cozy, hitter-friendly ballpark.

There is no doubt that Cincinnati is keen to reduce their salary level (and Votto is easily the most highly paid player for the Reds), while his presence in Toronto would ensure that the Jays would maintain a rabid, loyal fan base (probably second to none in the major leagues).

Votto ranks quite highly in many of baseball’s career offensive percentage statistics but none so spectacularly as his position in on-base percentage. Votto currently stands twelfth all-time in this career batting category, including all of baseball’s great players back to 1876. The legendary players ahead of him on that list include the names of the greatest batters in the history of the game.

In the table presented below, League Average represents the average OBP posted during that player’s tenure in the big leagues and the category of Difference represents the difference between that player’s OBP and the league average. When comparing his all-time rank in terms of the level of play of his contemporaries, Votto moves up to sixth place on the list.

Rank	Player	Years Played	OBP	League Average	Difference	Plate Appearances
1	Ted Williams	1939-1960	.4817	.337	.145	9788
2	Babe Ruth	1914-1935	.4739	.343	.131	10623
3	John McGraw	1891-1907	.4657	.338	.128	4940
4	Billy Hamilton	1888-1901	.4552	.338	.117	7608
5	Lou Gehrig	1923-1939	.4474	.352	.095	9663
6	Barry Bonds	1986-2007	.4443	.328	.116	12606
7	Bill Joyce	1890-1998	.4349	.349	.086	4163
8	Rogers Hornsby	1915-1937	.4337	.334	.100	9480
9	Ty Cobb	1905-1928	.4330	.331	.102	13087
10	Jimmie Foxx	1925-1945	.4283	.347	.081	9676
11	Tris Speaker	1907-1928	.4279	.332	.096	11995
12	Joey Votto	2007-2016	.4247	.322	.103	5434
13	Eddie Collins	1906-1930	.4244	.332	.092	12046

A couple of the players presented here merit additional information. John McGraw was a manager for almost half of his playing years, seeing very limited action as a participant on the field in those seasons. Bill Joyce was a reasonably good batter who performed during the period when baseball’s batting averages and scoring proficiency were at its highest levels. Joyce did lead the N.L. in walks a couple of times but never approached the level of hitting superiority of that of the other men shown here.

In fact, every player on the list (other than Votto, Bonds and Joyce) is safely enshrined in baseball’s Hall of Fame. No doubt Barry Bonds would have easily been elected to the hallowed hall if not for his reported PED use. He may still make it in before his time on the ballot expires. Might we be able to add the name of Joey Votto to baseball’s Hall-of-Fame roster some day?

If the Jays are truly serious about adding the Cincinnati slugger to their still-potent lineup, they had better get around to it in the very near future. Votto should have five or six very productive years left in his stellar career, and nothing could be better that seeing those productive seasons unfold in Toronto.