108: Jays fans should brace for Drew Hutchison reality
Aaron Sanchez moving to the bullpen won’t mean looting and anarchy in the streets of Toronto. Rather, and perhaps more horrifyingly, it means someone will have to take his place. (Photo: Frank Gunn / The Canadian Press)
June 28, 2016
By Tyler King
Canadian Baseball Network
Earlier this month, Blue Jays manager John Gibbons upped the ante on what had largely been an ignored and forgotten organizational pledge:
For the preservation of his young, under-worked arm, Aaron Sanchez will eventually be moved from the rotation to the bullpen ...
(To sum-up most fans reactions: Oh dear god no.)
“It’s definitely going to happen” and “we’re going to do it” was what the Jays skipper had to say about this - in an all too casual manner if you asked me. And although the upper brass has taken a softer approach when faced with the question, it’s difficult to believe that orders of this magnitude would come from anywhere but the very top.
So with that revelation, and the All-Star break just a month away - a logical point, if there is such a thing, for Sanchez to be relegated - it’s about time for Jays fans to begin facing this impending reality:
Someone will have to take his spot.
(Oh dear god NO!)
Yet before you start panicking, it may help be reminded that there is a silver lining in all this, which is of course that the bullpen has been tres bad for most of the season, if not absolutely-awful of late. It therefore follows that Sanchez can do much good there.
But even this realization won’t change the fact that many fans will still be left kicking and screaming when the decision to move him finally comes, as the good people of Canada are forced to wonder whether the long term health of arguably the team’s brightest arm is worth any delay in their immediate gratification.
The answer to that is certainly “Of course it’s not” but then again patience has never been a virtue well received by sports fans.
No matter how good he was as a reliever last season (and the season previous), it’s hard to argue that Sanchez - with his 7-1 record and 97 1/3 innings pitched in 15 starts- could be more valuable in the ‘pen.
In any event, whatever hole he inevitably fills in the bullpen will only leave another gaping one in the rotation.
So again I ask, who fills it?
Although I don’t have the answer, I can place an informed bet. And if you’re wondering, my chips are being pushed towards the “Drew Hutchison” pile.
(Was that a shudder I just heard?)
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A couple months ago, at the start of spring training, it was almost expected that Sanchez would begin the season as a reliever - taking his familiar and advantageous place as a late-inning stud. But as spring went on that thought, at least among the majority of fans, quickly switched to “This guy better start!”
Sanchez posted a 1.34 ERA and 0.90 WHIP in 20 spring innings (the most of any Blue Jay). This success surely forced the hands of Gibbons and Shapiro (and the rest) to side with all those fans and insert him into the rotation.
But even with all Sanchez’s Grapefruit league success, for the majority of camp Drew Hutchison continued to feel like one of the front runners in the quest for that fifth spot. It appeared that management had similar plans as they stretched Hutch out, having him throw 19 1/3 innings in the spring, second-most behind only Sanchez.
Newcomer Gavin Floyd and sort-of newcomer Jesse Chavez (who had pitched for the Jays briefly in 2012) also became a factor, making the battle for the fifth starter’s job one of the only lasting story lines to come out of the Blue Jays camp.
So if those three were the closest to getting the job a few months ago, it makes sense that those three would get the most consideration should Sanchez depart.
But with the news coming down just a few hours ago that Floyd will be out indefinitely with a torn lat muscle, and after taking one brief, underwhelming look at Jesse Chavez’s career numbers (and his numbers this season for that matter), it becomes even more clear that barring some Alex Anthopoulos-like magic, Hutchison will be the one who fills in.
So grit your teeth if you must, but here’s a terse look at what that prospect might mean:
First off, it’s going to almost certainly mean confusion.
Since 2012, perhaps no Blue Jays pitcher has been more puzzling to fans than Drew Hutchison (who was the opening day starter just a year ago). And that’s saying a lot considering they’ve have spent the first half of this decade trying to solve many different riddles under the guises of “Ricky Romero”, "Kyle Drabek”, and “Brandon Morrow” - I might add without much success. And let’s all pray “Marcus Stroman” isn’t added to that list.
When talking about Hutchison, there seems to always be this strange perception among Jays fans that he’s somehow washed-up ... (perhaps “missed the boat” is a better phrase here). It sort-of feels as if, for whatever reason, he’s already blown his shot at a steady MLB job, let alone his shot at big league glory.
It’s almost like everyone forgot he is still only 25-years-old or something ... alright fine, that realization sort of shocked me too.
Perhaps the feeling that Hutch’s name has been around forever exists because he’s been pitching in the big leagues, off and on, since 2012, when he was just 21-years-old. Hey if you’re going to praise Roberto Osuna for it, you have to be consistent ...
But despite his young age, whatever reservations you hold against Hutchison you should still recognize, and in turn feel somewhat impressed with, his apparent credentials. At least in terms of his relative experience.
He’s already made 72 starts in the big leagues, compared with 69 in the minors. He currently has more big league starts than Stroman and Sanchez combined. He also has 22 more starts than that other rotation hopeful, Jesse Chavez.
Yet I’ll fully admit that it still feels as if Hutch is a minor league guy, more on the fringe of making it than actually ever having made it.
But even if that is the case it can easily be argued that he’s deserving of another shot. In 355 career minor league innings, he has a very impressive ERA of 2.86 and an equally respectable WHIP of 1.098.
So far in 2016, Hutchison has made 14 starts in the minors to go along with one spot-start for the Jays, where he pitched well giving up just two runs over 5 2/3 innings. He’s to do everything asked of him down in Buffalo, and with the Bisons this season he currently has an ERA of 3.00 and a WHIP of 1.107. He’s also averaging over 10 strikeouts per nine innings.
However, when examining his performance at the big league level, the best you can say about Hutch is that he’s been inconsistent.
In 399 1/3 major league innings, he has a career ERA of 4.89. He made 25 starts in 2015 alone, and posted an astronomical ERA of 5.57 - although he still somehow went 13-5 (remember what I said about him being “puzzling”? That’s as strange as it gets).
In one of the most head-scratching statistics of the decade, Hutch went 11-2 at home last season with a 2.91 ERA. But he won just two games on the road, posting a road-ERA of 9.83.
Opponents hit .380 off of him on the road, compared to just .238 at home. Miguel Cabrera led the majors with a .338 average last season ... which should tell you how bad Hutch was away from the (oddly hitter-friendly) confines of the Rogers Centre.
Yet even with his high opponents batting average, he still has the ability to strike batters out (something he really doesn’t get enough credit for). He’s averaged 8.3 strikeouts per nine-innings over his four MLB seasons, and if transposed into 2016 that number would currently put him in the top 25 of American League pitchers (who have thrown over 40 innings).
So to sum up, and at the risk of over-simplifying this to the point of insult, Drew Hutchison is not Aaron Sanchez. However he is capable of being a very good pitcher. He just happens to be equally capable of being a very bad one.
But since he’s clearly the likeliest candidate for the job, Jays fans should keep their fingers crossed for the former.
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Follow Tyler and #Section108 on Twitter: @TylerJoseph108