Casaletto: Blue Jays take a chance on Shaw

New Toronto Blue Jays infielder Travis Shaw had back-to-back 30 home runs seasons in 2017 and 2018 for the Milwaukee Brewers. Photo: USA Today Sports

December 23, 2019

By Lucas Casaletto

Canadian Baseball Network

From the start of 2017 to the end of 2018, few players in the National League were in a better position than Travis Shaw.

His 7.1 fWAR placing him in the same tier as Buster Posey and Anthony Rizzo. His 119 wRC+ tied with the likes of Andrew McCutchen and ahead of Javier Baez.

Among his fellow Milwaukee Brewers teammates, only 2018 NL MVP Christian Yelich produced more value in terms of WAR. Shaw’s 63 home runs led the team, handsomely. He was, by all accounts, one of the league’s best sluggers.

After reportedly coming to terms with the infielder on a one-year, $4-million deal on Sunday, that’s the version of Shaw the Blue Jays hope they get when the 2020 regular season rolls around.

His awful 2019 campaign is the reason the Blue Jays were able to land Shaw in the first place. After two great seasons, Shaw was an afterthought in Milwaukee. A right wrist strain landed him on the disabled list in May, which could explain his inefficiency. Following his rehab, Shaw’s struggles continued, and he was sent down to triple-A on two separate occasions in June and August. His lacklustre play coincided with the arrival of super-prospect and infielder Keston Hiura, and with Mike Moustakas and Eric Thames playing better, Shaw couldn’t crack the every-day lineup.

Despite losing Moustakas (Reds) and Yasmani Grandal (White Sox) in free agency, and letting Thames test the open market, the Brewers cut ties with Shaw in early December. Now with the 29-year-old in the fold, his experience playing across the diamond gives the Blue Jays some options. With Justin Smoak opting to sign with the Brewers, it’s fair to assume Shaw is being brought in to play first base on a fairly regular basis; a good explanation behind his mutual interest in signing with the Blue Jays. That will give him plenty of opportunities to prove his 2019 season was an anomaly, paving the way for a good chance at recapturing his previous sizzle.

For comparison’s sake, these tables shed some light on how Smoak and Shaw compare in two key categories: SLG% and wOBA. It’s clear that Smoak’s presence in the Blue Jays lineup will be missed but what is also evident here is that Shaw possesses the ability to produce at a similar rate, perhaps even with slightly more upside. Shaw’s batted ball statistics were great when he was producing at a high clip and his ability to get on base (.347 OBP and 138 walks from 2017-2018) is another plus, too. Helping the Blue Jays further is Shaw’s service time as he’s arbitration-eligible for one more year, meaning Toronto could, in theory, hang onto him if everything goes well.

If there is one shortfall to Shaw’s profile it’s his inability to hit left-handed pitching. Unless he figures it out in his sixth season, he’s going to have to be sheltered, starting almost exclusively against right-handers. That could mean another signing is coming (Edwin Encarnacion, who hits lefties very well, thank you very much) or, perhaps a trade. At this stage of his career, if Edwin is really interested in a reunion, he makes a lot of sense at DH, with Shaw getting the bulk of the starts at first base. Shaw is also a candidate to play second and third base, which could provide Vladimir Guerrero Jr. with an extended look at first. As things stand, this likely means the end of Rowdy Tellez. Like Shaw, the left-handed Tellez doesn’t hit well against left-handed pitching and simply hasn’t shown enough during his time in the lineup to warrant long-term consideration.

The Shaw signing is a good one. He has nowhere to go but up, and while it may be unreasonable to predict he recaptures his past form, the bounce-back potential is very real, making it a solid value play for the front office.

Statistics courtesy: FanGraphs, Statcast, Baseball Reference, Brooks Baseball