Blue Jays trade Gurriel and Moreno to Diamondbacks for Varsho

The Toronto Blue Jays have reportedly acquired OF/C Daulton Varsho from the Arizona Diamondbacks.

December 23, 2022

By Evan Christie

Canadian Baseball Network

The Toronto Blue Jays have acquired C-OF Daulton Varsho from the Arizona Diamondbacks for a package of OF Lourdes Gurriel Jr. and top catching prospect Gabriel Moreno, according to multiple reports.

After missing out on Brandon Nimmo (Mets), Masataka Yoshida (Red Sox) and Michael Conforto (Giants), the Blue Jays got desperate, and that desperation got the better of them.

It’s difficult to call deals, especially this early, but fan reaction in the first hours has been negative.

Words like “fleece” and insulting puns referencing Blue Jays GM Ross Aktins have been tossed around by a fanbase that is seemingly tired of a front office that won’t treat the Blue Jays like the big market team they are.

But let’s take a step back and see what is going on. Had this been a one for one deal for Gurriel, the Blue Jays would have made out like bandits. While Gurriel is the slightly better hitter, sporting a 114 wRC+ in 2022 to Varsho’s 106, that difference is honestly negligible. Gurriel offers more contact, Varsho more power.

Where Varsho really excels is defensively. As an outfielder Varsho put up an absolutely ridiculous Ultimate Zone Rating of 18.8, Gurriel, by comparison put up a -6. This leads to a massive discrepancy in fWAR, with Varsho sporting 4.6 to Gurriel’s 1.

Varsho also happens to be three years younger, and has four more years left on his contract, Gurriel is a free agent after next season. If we were to stop at that, one might say the Jays fleeced the Diamondbacks.

But then you throw in Moreno.

Moreno showed a lot of flashes in his 25 games with the Jays last season but was stuck in a logjam at catcher behind Danny Jansen and Alejandro Kirk. Some assumed that Jansen would be the odd man out of the three, but evidently the Jays decided it was Moreno.

This complicates things. The 23-year-old catcher was at the top of the Jays prospect board for many years. While his hitting wasn’t fantastic, it was still above average. He sported a 120 wRC+ in triple-A and a 113 wRC+ in the majors. His whole thing was his defence. Moreno projects to be an elite defensive catcher in the future, and elite defensive catchers with decent bats don’t come around very often.

But once again, is it worth calling it this early?

Fan reaction to the Austin Martin and Simeon Woods Richardson for Jose Berrios trade was also overwhelmingly negative, but a year later, it doesn’t seem as bad. While yes, Berrios had a down year in 2022, Martin seems to have hit a brick wall in his development, only managing an 89 wRC+ in double-A last year.

By most accounts, Moreno needs at least one more year in the oven in order to be ready to play in the majors every day. Will the D-Backs give him that? Possibly, but it’s just as likely they’ll have him start ahead of Carson Kelly. That could be great, or it could backfire.

What this deal comes down to is that the Blue Jays traded a great prospect and an average outfielder for an all-star caliber outfielder. The trade ultimately looks fair, and in reality trying to call this trade for either side will have to wait until at least 2024.